Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T08:25:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4E 0x4e87…0275 politics 25 markets active 4h ago coverage 178d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate12%3W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$173per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 55% −$3
other 31% +$1
sports 14% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.4% -9.9% 0% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 11 -0.1% -9.6% 9% 0% -9.6%
all 25 -0.1% -9.6% 12% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 70% · top 2 96% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.65 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

178d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses3 / 22
Open positions0
Markets (closed)25 / 25
History coverage178d
Avg bet$173
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 25 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 25 $102 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $313 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $102 $0 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $103 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $103 $0 +0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $103 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? May 14 $103 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $103 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 08 $103 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $104 $0 +0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 01 $209 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 23 $209 $0 +0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 20 $209 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 17 $209 $0 +0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 14 $209 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 12 $210 $0 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Mar 02 $210 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 24 $210 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Australian Open? Jan 29 $199 +$1 +1%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 06 $201 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 04 $201 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 03 $202 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 03 $200 $0 -0%
Will Burnley win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 02 $206 $0 -0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 30 $202 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 95¢ $102 3h
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 95¢ $102 15h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $102 7d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $12 7d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $21 7d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $20 7d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $19 7d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $30 7d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $102 19d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $102 19d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $103 28d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $103 28d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $103 34d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $103 34d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $103 37d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $103 37d
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $103 41d
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $103 41d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $103 42d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $103 42d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $103 47d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $103 48d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $104 69d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $39 70d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $66 70d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $209 85d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $209 85d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $209 93d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $209 93d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $209 96d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 81 history records