Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T19:00:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4E 0x4e85…4e03 crypto 31 markets active 0h ago coverage 17d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$475 (-61%) realized −$474 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%11W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$12
7 days−$115
14 days−$304
30 days−$496
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 77% −$457
crypto 22% −$39
sports 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+5.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +35.0% +22.2% 44% 44% -47.4%
≤30d 29 +17.0% +5.9% 38% 38% -75.9%
≤90d 29 +17.0% +5.9% 38% 38% -75.9%
all 29 +17.0% +5.9% 38% 38% -75.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +5.9% 38% -75.9%
10% -4.3% 38% -78.2%
15% -13.5% 38% -80.3%
20% -22.0% 38% -82.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -73% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt -73% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late +42% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$31 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.12 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized−$474
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses11 / 18
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)29 / 31
History coverage17d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
France vs. Senegal: Neither team to score first? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $6 $6 −$1 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$2 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 16 $18 −$17 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$4 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$4 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$5 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$2 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 15 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$1 -45%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$12 +226%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$5 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 14 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$12 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$11 +218%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? Jun 14 $5 +$6 +124%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $10 −$6 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$2 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$4 -37%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $12 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 14 $15 −$3 -22%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 +$10 +441%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +54%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $96 −$94 -98%
Will Wales win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $116 −$96 -83%
Will Guatemala win on 2026-06-04? Jun 05 $95 −$93 -97%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? May 31 $96 −$96 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $96 −$96 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
France vs. Senegal: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 7¢ $7 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET SELL Up 3¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $18 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $3 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET SELL Up 32¢ $2 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET SELL Up 21¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $5 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $4 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? SELL No 9¢ $0 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? SELL No 8¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? BUY Down 43¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET SELL Down 23¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Down 27¢ $7 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.53 · official $5.53 (match) · 65 history records