Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T20:20:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4E
0x4e85…3b3b
sports · 15 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$20 -10%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$19 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
Net worth$2
Realized−$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses5 / 10
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)15 / 15
History coverage8d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 0 History 15 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$18
14 days−$19
30 days−$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
CD Ñublense vs. CD Huachipato: O/U 2.5 Over 59¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+69%)
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Over 61¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
CD Unión La Calera vs. CF Universidad de Chile: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $14 +$4 +31%
CD Concepción vs. CD Limache: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $15 −$5 -33%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $15 −$4 -28%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $15 −$1 -6%
CD Ñublense vs. CD Huachipato: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $12 +$6 +51%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $14 +$4 +24%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $15 −$4 -24%
Everton de Viña del Mar vs. CD Palestino: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $15 −$4 -26%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $15 +$4 +28%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $15 −$15 -99%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $15 −$6 -40%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $15 +$2 +14%
Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $2 $0 -6%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $6 $0 -5%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $10 −$1 -7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 100% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
CD Unión La Calera vs. CF Universidad de Chile: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 89¢ $19 58m
CD Unión La Calera vs. CF Universidad de Chile: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 67¢ $14 1h
CD Concepción vs. CD Limache: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 46¢ $10 3h
CD Concepción vs. CD Limache: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 67¢ $15 3h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 42¢ $10 15h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $15 15h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 59¢ $14 18h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $15 18h
CD Ñublense vs. CD Huachipato: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 88¢ $16 20h
CD Ñublense vs. CD Huachipato: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $12 20h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 82¢ $18 21h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 65¢ $14 21h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 52¢ $11 24h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 67¢ $15 24h
Everton de Viña del Mar vs. CD Palestino: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 52¢ $11 24h
Everton de Viña del Mar vs. CD Palestino: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 69¢ $15 25h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 81¢ $19 42h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $15 43h
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $15 3d
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 44¢ $9 3d
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 71¢ $15 3d
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 80¢ $17 3d
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 69¢ $15 4d
Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 45¢ $2 5d
Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $2 5d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 48¢ $2 5d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $3 5d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 48¢ $3 5d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $3 5d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 32¢ $2 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+16.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +31.6% +19.0% 36% 36% -19.2%
≤30d 15 +29.0% +16.7% 33% 33% -19.0%
≤90d 15 +29.0% +16.7% 33% 33% -19.0%
all 15 +29.0% +16.7% 33% 33% -19.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +16.7% 33% -19.0%
10% +5.6% 27% -26.8%
15% -4.6% 7% -33.8%
20% -14.0% 7% -40.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.64 · official $1.64 (match) · 41 history records