Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T09:48:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
4E 0x4e84…16cd politics 156 markets active 0h ago coverage 127d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,573 (-1%) realized −$1,573 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate17%27W / 128L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,433per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$33est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$500now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$16
14 days−$30
30 days+$120
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 45% −$115
other 36% −$281
sports 16% −$1,198
culture 1% −$3
world 1% −$2
economics 1% −$2
finance 0% −$1
crypto 0% +$1
tech 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-5.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 39 +8.5% -1.8% 15% 10% -9.3%
≤90d 106 +2.4% -7.4% 9% 7% -10.3%
all 155 +4.5% -5.4% 17% 13% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.4% 13% -10.2%
10% -14.5% 13% -18.8%
15% -22.7% 12% -26.6%
20% -30.3% 10% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,951) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +7% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$53 vs −$24 · ×2.23 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$500
Realized−$1,573
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses27 / 128
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$33
Open positions1
Markets (closed)155 / 156
History coverage127d
Avg bet$1,433
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 155 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 100¢ 99¢ $500 $500 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? Jun 22 $518 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $6,573 −$7 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $911 −$1 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 17 $1,479 −$2 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $891 −$1 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $792 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 16 $2,406 −$3 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $2,746 −$4 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $3,701 −$3 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? Jun 14 $197 +$3 +1%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $667 −$1 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $641 −$1 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $2,352 −$3 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $737 −$1 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 10 $687 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $2,198 −$3 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $747 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $2,125 −$2 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 07 $1,073 −$1 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $2,557 −$3 -0%
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 06 $54 +$41 +76%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $1,121 −$2 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $734 −$1 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $968 −$1 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $1,900 −$3 -0%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 04 $72 +$51 +70%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $758 −$1 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 03 $640 −$1 -0%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 03 $43 +$60 +140%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in May? Jun 03 $155 $0 +0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $748 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $9,800 −$10 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $796 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 28 $2,274 −$2 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 27 $394 −$1 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 26 $308 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $3,471 −$4 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 25 $1,470 −$2 -0%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 25 $76 +$36 +48%
Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves May 23 $72 +$36 +50%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $1,490 −$2 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? May 22 $369 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $347 −$1 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $3,479 −$4 -0%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 May 22 $76 −$76 -100%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 21 $415 −$1 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 21 $315 −$1 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 20 $2,136 −$2 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 20 $516 −$1 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $1,144 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 100¢ $501 28m
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $517 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $518 3h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $351 4d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $352 4d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $910 5d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $911 5d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $871 5d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $873 5d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $889 5d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $891 6d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $790 6d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $792 6d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $739 6d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $740 6d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $826 7d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $827 7d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $907 7d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $908 7d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $752 8d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $753 8d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $666 10d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $667 11d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $640 11d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $641 11d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $646 11d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $647 11d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $736 11d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $737 12d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $686 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $500.23 · official $500.23 (match) · 542 history records