Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:15:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
4E 0x4e83…a81f world 18 markets active 2h ago coverage 23d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$55 (-3%) realized −$592 · open +$537
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +0% what you keep after slip
Net edge+0%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate67%6W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$102per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$1,398now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$9
14 days−$138
30 days−$118
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 94% −$29
other 6% +$448
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)+0.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +44.2% +30.5% 50% 25% -11.2%
≤30d 9 +10.6% +0.1% 67% 22% -19.4%
≤90d 9 +10.6% +0.1% 67% 22% -19.4%
all 9 +10.6% +0.1% 67% 22% -19.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.1% 22% -19.4%
10% -9.5% 11% -27.1%
15% -18.3% 11% -34.1%
20% -26.3% 11% -40.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 83% · top 2 90% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$90 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$1,398
Realized−$592
Unrealized+$537
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses6 / 3
Open positions13
Markets (closed)9 / 18
History coverage23d
Avg bet$102
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? No 69¢ 72¢ $170 $177 +$7 (+4%)
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? Yes 82¢ 92¢ $131 $148 +$17 (+13%)
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No 0¢ 92¢ $0 $131 +$131 (+0%)
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? No 72¢ 80¢ $110 $123 +$13 (+12%)
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? No 82¢ 96¢ $100 $117 +$17 (+17%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? No 77¢ 100¢ $90 $117 +$27 (+30%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 0¢ 100¢ $0 $112 +$112 (+0%)
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? Yes 0¢ 66¢ $0 $111 +$111 (+0%)
Will Russia capture Sloviansk by June 30? No 0¢ 99¢ $0 $106 +$106 (+0%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No 56¢ 50¢ $110 $97 −$13 (-12%)
Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026? No 91¢ 94¢ $60 $62 +$2 (+3%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? No 97¢ 100¢ $60 $61 +$1 (+2%)
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? Yes 77¢ 88¢ $30 $34 +$4 (+14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 19 $150 −$14 -9%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? Jun 18 $130 +$5 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $50 +$125 +250%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $185 −$126 -68%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 09 $100 +$1 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $130 −$130 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $100 +$11 +11%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 03 $140 +$9 +6%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 28, 2026? May 29 $100 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 75¢ $79 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 71¢ $25 3h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 68¢ $15 3h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 68¢ $1 3h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 68¢ $0 3h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 68¢ $16 3h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $130 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 91¢ $175 4d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 15¢ $27 4d
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? BUY No 61¢ $7 7d
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? BUY Yes 77¢ $30 7d
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? BUY No 61¢ $23 7d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 47¢ $33 7d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $90 7d
Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $20 9d
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? BUY No 74¢ $30 9d
Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $20 9d
Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $20 9d
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 82¢ $30 10d
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? BUY No 79¢ $17 10d
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? BUY No 79¢ $33 10d
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? SELL No 0¢ $0 11d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $100 12d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 56¢ $110 13d
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? BUY No 94¢ $130 14d
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY No 82¢ $100 14d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY No 97¢ $60 14d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $50 15d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 70¢ $10 15d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 72¢ $25 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,398.04 · official $1,398.04 (match) · 75 history records