Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T05:52:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
4E 0x4e7f…634e other 3 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$398 (+29%) realized +$398 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +56% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +35% what you keep after slip
Net edge+35%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate100%3W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$464per market
Trades / day5.2pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% +$398
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+40.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +55.7% +40.9% 100% 33% +16.4%
≤30d 3 +55.7% +40.9% 100% 33% +16.4%
≤90d 3 +55.7% +40.9% 100% 33% +16.4%
all 3 +55.7% +40.9% 100% 33% +16.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +40.9% 33% +16.4%
10% +27.4% 33% +5.2%
15% +15.1% 33% -4.9%
20% +3.8% 33% -14.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 87% · top 2 97% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +29% too few recent
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +56% · $-wt +29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$133 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$398
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses3 / 0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)3 / 3
History coverage1d
Avg bet$464
Trades / day5.2
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 3 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $606 +$12 +2%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $566 +$41 +7%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $219 +$346 +158%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $618 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 98¢ $606 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $606 4h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 93¢ $566 5h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $565 27h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 38¢ $219 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 6 history records