Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T17:22:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4E
0x4e7d…e7a0
crypto · 988 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$338 -11%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$333 · open −$5
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$26
Realized−$333
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses381 / 586
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions17
Markets (closed)967 / 988
History coverage92d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day28.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%
Chart Positions 17 History 967 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days−$90
14 days−$107
30 days−$283
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? Yes 43¢ 50¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+14%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? Yes 45¢ 50¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+10%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Down 36¢ 24¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-32%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? Yes 28¢ 14¢ $3 $1 −$1 (-48%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? Yes 42¢ 49¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+17%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1PM ET Down 54¢ 60¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+10%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? Yes 22¢ 23¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Spain 51¢ 52¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Yes 48¢ 46¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? Yes 27¢ 25¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 12? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 12? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 11? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Down 43¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 9? Yes 21¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7AM ET Down 45¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 11? Yes 22¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Up 24¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 10? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 9? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 12 $6 +$6 +96%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $2 +$1 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $8 −$8 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$7 +160%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$2 +159%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12? Jun 11 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$5 +165%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 10 $4 −$4 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 7? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 7? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 8? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 7? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 6? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 9? Jun 07 $3 −$1 -24%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 8? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -61%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $4 +$1 +33%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 11? Jun 06 $1 $0 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7PM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 4? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10AM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 9? Jun 06 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 06 $4 +$15 +409%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 29? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6PM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3PM ET Jun 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in May? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 5? Jun 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6PM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 28? Jun 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 27? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11AM ET Jun 06 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2PM ET Jun 06 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? Jun 06 $4 −$1 -25%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 27? Jun 06 $6 −$3 -53%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 28? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 06 $9 +$4 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10AM ET Jun 06 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 31? Jun 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 96% −$327
other 3% −$9
sports 0% −$2
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 18m
Will Spain reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $1 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AND Will United States win on 2026-06-1 BUY 31¢ $1 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026 BUY 40¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET SELL Down 59¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? SELL Yes 43¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $3 6h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND Will United States win on 2026-06-12 BUY 45¢ $2 6h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $0 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $0 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $2 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET SELL Up 87¢ $5 17h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12? SELL Yes 88¢ $10 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6PM ET SELL Up 68¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-22.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 66 -48.2% -53.1% 20% 18% -46.0%
≤30d 225 -35.7% -41.8% 23% 21% -36.0%
≤90d 946 -16.4% -24.3% 38% 36% -20.3%
all 967 -14.5% -22.7% 39% 37% -19.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover28.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.7% 37% -19.5%
10% ← realistic here -30.1% 35% -27.2%
15% -36.8% 33% -34.2%
20% -43.0% 29% -40.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.37 · official $32.38 · 3500 history records