Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T17:20:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4E
0x4e7a…d25f
other · 48 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$1 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$42
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses19 / 27
Open positions2
Markets (closed)46 / 48
History coverage460d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%
Chart Positions 2 History 46 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? No 91¢ 92¢ $42 $42 +$0 (+0%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 14¢ 18¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $125 −$3 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $42 −$1 -1%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $86 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 09 $123 +$1 +1%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 09 $9 $0 -3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 08 $16 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 08 $41 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 07 $3 $0 -4%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $45 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $35 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 05 $14 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $45 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 04 $45 $0 +0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 10 $2 $0 +1%
Will federal spending decrease by less than $250b between Q4 2024 and Jul 16 $10 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Jul 05 $8 $0 +1%
Will Ousmane Dembele win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 21 $8 $0 -1%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 20 $8 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July? Jun 18 $8 $0 -0%
Will Trump deport less than 250,000? Jun 17 $4 $0 -0%
Will Jack Draper win Wimbledon 2025? Jun 17 $7 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair? Jun 16 $8 $0 +0%
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 14 $8 $0 +0%
Will Jon Rahm win The 2025 U.S. Open? Jun 12 $7 $0 -0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $200-250b in federal spending in 2025? Jun 12 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 11 $10 $0 +0%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Jun 11 $20 $0 -0%
Will 'The Fantastic Four: First Steps' have the best domestic opening Jun 07 $10 $0 -1%
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? Jun 06 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 215–229 times May 30–June 6? Jun 04 $9 +$1 +6%
Will Lee Jun-seok be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $10 $0 +5%
Will the next Pope be from Oceania? May 09 $1 $0 +1%
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? Apr 16 $2 $0 +5%
Will Trump pardon Steve Bannon in his first 100 days? Apr 14 $10 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair? Apr 13 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the Western Conference? Apr 13 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the Eastern Conference? Apr 12 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2025 World Series? Apr 09 $12 $0 +0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? Apr 08 $12 $0 -0%
2025 March hottest on record? Apr 06 $12 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $100 by March? Mar 29 $12 $0 -1%
Will Victor Ponta win the Romanian presidential election? Mar 25 $12 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Bob Menendez in his first 100 days? Mar 20 $12 $0 +0%
USA wins the most gold medals in 2025 Special Olympics? Mar 14 $12 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 13 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 12 $12 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 67% −$2
other 21% +$1
politics 7% +$1
crypto 2% $0
economics 2% $0
sports 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 91¢ $42 2h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $13 8h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $13 8h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 5¢ $2 24h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 6¢ $3 25h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 79¢ $43 28h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 84¢ $45 30h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 67¢ $42 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 68¢ $37 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 67¢ $5 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 43¢ $38 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 42¢ $24 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 42¢ $14 3d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $41 3d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $41 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $41 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 55¢ $41 3d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $45 3d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $45 4d
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL Yes 10¢ $8 4d
Iran Nuke before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $6 4d
Iran Nuke before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 4d
Iran Nuke before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? SELL Yes 42¢ $10 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? SELL Yes 42¢ $5 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes 42¢ $16 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 54¢ $41 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 55¢ $24 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 55¢ $18 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 44¢ $0 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -1.1% -10.5% 33% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 13 -0.7% -10.2% 23% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 13 -0.7% -10.2% 23% 0% -9.8%
all 46 +0.2% -9.4% 41% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.27 · official $41.07 · 130 history records