Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:57:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4E 0x4e7a…1f23 other 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$5 (-44%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -72% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -75% what you keep after slip
Net edge-75%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate20%1W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit20%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 82% −$5
sports 18% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-74.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -71.6% -74.3% 20% 20% -78.4%
≤30d 5 -71.6% -74.3% 20% 20% -78.4%
≤90d 5 -71.6% -74.3% 20% 20% -78.4%
all 5 -71.6% -74.3% 20% 20% -78.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -74.3% 20% -78.4%
10% -76.8% 20% -80.5%
15% -79.0% 20% -82.3%
20% -81.1% 0% -84.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -76% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -72% · $-wt -76% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses1 / 4
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)5 / 10
History coverage4d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +42%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 1h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 1h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 28h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 45¢ $1 28h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 43¢ $1 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 40¢ $1 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $1 3d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.85 · official $4.85 (match) · 12 history records