trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 14 | -17.9% | -25.7% | 43% | 36% | -42.0% |
| ≤30d | 15 | -7.0% | -15.9% | 47% | 40% | -20.5% |
| ≤90d | 19 | -21.2% | -28.7% | 37% | 32% | -29.0% |
| all | 19 | -21.2% | -28.7% | 37% | 32% | -29.0% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -28.7% | 32% | -29.0% |
| 10% | -35.6% | 26% | -35.8% |
| 15% | -41.8% | 26% | -42.0% |
| 20% | -47.5% | 16% | -47.7% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | No | 52¢ | 81¢ | $150 | $237 | +$87 (+58%) |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | No | 2¢ | 1¢ | $76 | $56 | −$20 (-27%) |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | No | 2¢ | 3¢ | $31 | $44 | +$13 (+42%) |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? | Yes | 4¢ | 4¢ | $19 | $18 | −$1 (-4%) |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? | Yes | 38¢ | 52¢ | $5 | $7 | +$2 (+40%) |
| Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? | No | 56¢ | 32¢ | $12 | $7 | −$5 (-44%) |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | No | 23¢ | 10¢ | $15 | $6 | −$9 (-57%) |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | Yes | 47¢ | 60¢ | $5 | $6 | +$1 (+29%) |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? | No | 8¢ | 8¢ | $4 | $4 | +$0 (+6%) |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? | Yes | 38¢ | 6¢ | $10 | $2 | −$8 (-83%) |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? | Yes | 18¢ | 6¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-69%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Jun 16 | $5 | −$2 | -37% |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? | Jun 16 | $31 | +$12 | +38% |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June? | Jun 16 | $10 | −$8 | -76% |
| Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? | Jun 16 | $5 | +$6 | +108% |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? | Jun 16 | $5 | $0 | +6% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? | Jun 16 | $20 | −$20 | -98% |
| Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30? | Jun 16 | $5 | −$5 | -91% |
| Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.35T by June 30? | Jun 16 | $5 | −$4 | -73% |
| Iran leadership change by December 31? | Jun 16 | $10 | +$4 | +41% |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 | Jun 16 | $10 | +$2 | +22% |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? | Jun 16 | $15 | −$2 | -16% |
| Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.2m barrels per day in 202 | Jun 12 | $10 | +$12 | +125% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? | Jun 12 | $170 | −$58 | -34% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | Jun 12 | $26 | −$26 | -100% |
| Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? | Jun 02 | $30 | +$44 | +145% |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? | Apr 30 | $195 | −$35 | -18% |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? | Apr 30 | $15 | −$12 | -80% |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31? | Apr 28 | $15 | −$15 | -100% |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th? | Apr 28 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |