Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T00:48:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4E 0x4e79…22e3 world 32 markets active 1h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$57 (-5%) realized −$58 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate56%10W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day7.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$12now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 14d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
culture 64% $0
world 30% −$19
sports 3% −$12
crypto 2% −$7
other 1% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-29.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +6.4% -3.7% 33% 33% -15.0%
≤30d 18 -21.9% -29.4% 56% 33% -19.3%
≤90d 18 -21.9% -29.4% 56% 33% -19.3%
all 18 -21.9% -29.4% 56% 33% -19.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.4% 33% -19.3%
10% -36.1% 28% -27.0%
15% -42.3% 17% -34.1%
20% -48.0% 0% -40.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 63% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -32% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$5 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$12
Realized−$58
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses10 / 8
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions12
Markets (closed)18 / 32
History coverage14d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day7.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $243 −$17 -7%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $70 −$3 -4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 15 $1 $0 +30%
Dota 2: by Owl Club vs VooDooSh Club (BO3) - Winline Star Series Playo Jun 04 $1 $0 +42%
Counter-Strike: Nemiga vs Bushido Wildcats (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Jun 04 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in June? Jun 03 $1 $0 +29%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs KO (BO5) - Esports World Cup MESWA Closed Qual Jun 03 $10 $0 +2%
Valorant: T1 Academy vs Gen.G Global Academy (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regula Jun 03 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs GLYPH (BO3) - Esports World Cup Southeast Asia Clos Jun 03 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 03 $5 +$2 +44%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 03 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 03 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 03 $5 −$5 -96%
Dota 2: D family vs Execration (BO3) - Esports World Cup Southeast Asi Jun 03 $1 $0 +19%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Carstensz (BO3) - Esports World Cup Southeast Asia Cl Jun 03 $1 $0 +39%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-Zero Tenacity (BO3) - CCT Europe Series Jun 03 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m BUY Yes 43¢ $13 1h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m BUY No 59¢ $17 1h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m BUY No 59¢ $17 1h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m BUY Yes 42¢ $21 3h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 171m and 184m BUY No 70¢ $32 9h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m BUY Yes 38¢ $11 9h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m BUY No 64¢ $32 9h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 171m and 184m BUY Yes 34¢ $15 10h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 171m and 184m BUY Yes 34¢ $15 10h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 171m and 184m BUY No 67¢ $20 10h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 171m and 184m BUY No 67¢ $9 10h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m BUY Yes 35¢ $4 12h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m BUY No 66¢ $7 12h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m BUY No 66¢ $18 12h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m BUY Yes 37¢ $5 13h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m BUY Yes 37¢ $5 13h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m BUY No 63¢ $28 15h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m BUY Yes 37¢ $18 15h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 171m and 184m BUY Yes 35¢ $9 16h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 171m and 184m BUY No 68¢ $17 16h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m BUY No 62¢ $3 16h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m BUY No 55¢ $28 18h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 145m and 158m BUY Yes $2 18h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 145m and 158m BUY No 95¢ $16 18h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 145m and 158m BUY No 95¢ $16 18h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m BUY Yes 47¢ $24 18h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m BUY No 50¢ $6 19h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m BUY Yes 52¢ $6 19h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m BUY Yes 52¢ $6 19h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m BUY No 50¢ $6 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.60 · official $9.68 · 139 history records