Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:03:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4E 0x4e76…eac1 other 71 markets active 1h ago coverage 86d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,299 (-31%) realized −$1,444 · open +$145
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate35%22W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$58per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$685now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$37
7 days−$179
14 days−$179
30 days−$1,927
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 37% −$716
other 28% −$206
politics 18% −$1
crypto 11% −$197
weather 3% −$114
world 2% −$100
finance 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-36.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -30.4% -37.1% 50% 50% -55.7%
≤30d 46 -65.7% -69.0% 24% 22% -76.0%
≤90d 63 -30.1% -36.8% 35% 33% -47.2%
all 63 -30.1% -36.8% 35% 33% -47.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -36.8% 33% -47.2%
10% -42.8% 32% -52.2%
15% -48.3% 30% -56.8%
20% -53.4% 14% -61.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -42% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt -42% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +24% → late -83% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$58 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$685
Realized−$1,444
Unrealized+$145
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses22 / 41
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions8
Markets (closed)63 / 71
History coverage86d
Avg bet$58
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 63 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 36¢ 98¢ $100 $273 +$173 (+173%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 45¢ 52¢ $100 $114 +$14 (+14%)
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 67¢ 60¢ $117 $104 −$13 (-11%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $56 $55 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+11%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 13¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-17%)
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 58¢ $27 $0 −$27 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $14 +$6 +44%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $50 +$11 +21%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $51 +$25 +50%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $21 −$20 -96%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $105 −$100 -95%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 +$4 +42%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea Jun 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Jun 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? Jun 02 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-10? Jun 02 $34 −$34 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 21? Jun 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 02 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 02 $30 −$30 -100%
KK Crvena Zvezda vs. Partizan Jun 02 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-04? Jun 02 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? Jun 02 $53 −$53 -100%
Will Sunderland AFC vs. Manchester United FC end in a draw? Jun 02 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29? Jun 02 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 02 $60 −$60 -100%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 02 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? Jun 02 $51 −$51 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? Jun 02 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) win the most seats in the 202 Jun 02 $104 −$104 -100%
Lakers vs. Rockets Jun 02 $100 −$100 -100%
Hawks vs. Knicks Jun 02 $100 −$100 -100%
Chisinau: Andrej Nedic vs Genaro Alberto Olivieri Jun 02 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 02 $67 −$67 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup China Qual Jun 02 $159 −$157 -99%
Will Robert Golob be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia? Jun 02 $110 −$110 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 02 $50 −$50 -100%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs 3DMAX (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Playoffs Jun 02 $100 −$100 -100%
Hornets vs. Magic Jun 02 $100 −$100 -100%
Dota 2: GamerLegion vs Heroic (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Jun 02 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 PGA Championship? Jun 02 $59 −$59 -100%
Rangers vs. Panthers Jun 02 $100 −$100 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Jun 02 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Janez Janša be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia? May 31 $51 +$22 +43%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $27 +$17 +64%
Will West Ham be relegated from the English Premier League after the 2 May 24 $104 +$11 +10%
Will FC Machida Zelvia win on 2026-05-22? May 22 $50 +$22 +44%
Hamburg European Open: Tommy Paul vs Tomas Etcheverry May 20 $51 +$39 +76%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 20 $40 +$18 +44%
Bengaluru 3: Dominik Palan vs Kokoro Isomura May 19 $50 +$20 +39%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? May 09 $33 +$19 +56%
Will Cagliari Calcio win on 2026-04-27? Apr 27 $20 +$78 +388%
Dota 2: South America Rejects vs MOUZ (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stag Apr 22 $50 +$23 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Apr 22 $60 +$14 +23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $57 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $101 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $14 23h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $50 23h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $51 23h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $5 44h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $21 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $105 3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $101 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $10 6d
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? BUY Yes 67¢ $118 15d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 58¢ $27 17d
Chisinau: Andrej Nedic vs Genaro Alberto Olivieri BUY Andrej Nedic 62¢ $101 22d
Will West Ham be relegated from the English Premier League after the 2 BUY Yes 87¢ $104 24d
Will FC Machida Zelvia win on 2026-05-22? BUY Yes 69¢ $50 25d
KK Crvena Zvezda vs. Partizan BUY KK Crvena Zvezda 70¢ $50 27d
Hamburg European Open: Tommy Paul vs Tomas Etcheverry BUY Tommy Paul 56¢ $51 28d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $53 28d
Bengaluru 3: Dominik Palan vs Kokoro Isomura BUY Dominik Palan 71¢ $50 29d
Cavaliers vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 69¢ $40 29d
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele BUY Yes 45¢ $102 32d
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 PGA Championship? BUY Yes 33¢ $59 33d
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 44¢ $51 34d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea BUY Hanwha Life Esports 51¢ $10 35d
Will Sunderland AFC vs. Manchester United FC end in a draw? BUY No 61¢ $51 38d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? BUY Yes 64¢ $21 42d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $26 42d
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-04? BUY Yes 69¢ $50 43d
Will the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) win the most seats in the 202 BUY Yes 85¢ $4 47d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29? BUY Yes 40¢ $41 49d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $685.09 · official $685.10 (match) · 190 history records