Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T04:28:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4E 0x4e76…c7d5 other 69 markets active 1h ago coverage 625d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$23 (-0%) realized −$23 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate24%16W / 52L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$266per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$54now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 74% −$14
politics 14% −$8
other 8% +$10
sports 2% −$12
tech 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
culture 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 14 -0.1% -9.6% 21% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 50 -4.4% -13.5% 18% 8% -11.2%
all 68 -2.0% -11.3% 24% 12% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 12% -9.6%
10% -19.8% 12% -18.3%
15% -27.6% 9% -26.2%
20% -34.7% 7% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 48% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$3 · ×2.67 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

625d coverage
Net worth$54
Realized−$23
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses16 / 52
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)68 / 69
History coverage625d
Avg bet$266
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 68 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $54 $54 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Nasir Hosseini be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 28 $27 $0 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 27 $6 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 21 $13 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 20 $16 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $15 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 17 $45 $0 +0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $13 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 13 $9 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $14 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $17 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $16 $0 -0%
Will paiN win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 05 $10 $0 -0%
Will XRP reach $1.80 in May? Jun 05 $17 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in May? Jun 05 $34 $0 +0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $16 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 27 $12 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 26 $14 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $13 $0 -0%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees May 22 $6 +$9 +140%
Will Yariv Levin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 21 $14 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $92 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? May 19 $12 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $150 $0 -0%
Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros May 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 12 $79 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $228 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $79 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 03 $159 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $81 $0 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 02 $78 $0 -0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? May 02 $74 $0 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 01 $79 $0 -0%
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 30 $77 $0 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 24 $76 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 24 $79 $0 -0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Apr 23 $73 $0 -0%
Will Claudia López win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Apr 22 $77 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $75 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $75 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $80 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Apr 18 $80 $0 -0%
Timberwolves vs. Magic Apr 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Rockets vs. Suns Apr 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Hawks vs. Cavaliers Apr 09 $8 +$7 +86%
Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets Apr 07 $15 +$4 +29%
Canucks vs. Avalanche Apr 02 $18 −$18 -100%
Based FDV above $2B one day after launch? Apr 01 $24 $0 +0%
Flames vs. Avalanche Apr 01 $24 +$7 +30%
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in March? Apr 01 $48 $0 +0%
Heat vs. Pacers Apr 01 $28 −$28 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Nasir Hosseini be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $27 30m
Will Nasir Hosseini be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $27 1h
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $6 20h
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $6 23h
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $13 7d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $13 7d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $16 7d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $16 8d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $15 8d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $15 8d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $54 9d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 100¢ $45 10d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $13 13d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $13 13d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $9 14d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $9 14d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $13 15d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $14 15d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $17 20d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $17 21d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $16 21d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $16 22d
Will paiN win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 99¢ $10 22d
Will paiN win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 22d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $16 30d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $16 30d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $12 31d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $12 31d
Will XRP reach $1.80 in May? BUY No 100¢ $17 32d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $14 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $54.01 · official $54.01 (match) · 318 history records