Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T23:50:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4E 0x4e75…6934 other 73 markets active 2h ago coverage 448d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$25 (-0%) realized −$26 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate40%29W / 43L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$87per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$156now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$11
14 days−$13
30 days−$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 32% −$1
world 26% −$18
other 20% $0
politics 16% +$1
finance 3% $0
economics 2% −$4
crypto 1% $0
tech 1% −$1
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -1.6% -11.0% 14% 0% -10.4%
≤30d 12 -1.1% -10.5% 25% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 19 -1.2% -10.6% 16% 0% -9.9%
all 72 -0.2% -9.7% 40% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.9%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.14 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

448d coverage
Net worth$156
Realized−$26
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses29 / 43
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)72 / 73
History coverage448d
Avg bet$87
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 72 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 95¢ 96¢ $155 $156 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 18 $139 +$2 +1%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $154 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $306 −$2 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 16 $222 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $107 −$11 -10%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $24 −$1 -2%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $162 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $166 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $166 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $5 $0 +3%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 09 $50 −$2 -5%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $168 $0 +0%
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $67 −$1 -1%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 20 $892 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $1,128 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 19 $90 −$4 -5%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 19 $120 −$4 -4%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 19 $813 −$1 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 17 $901 −$1 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 21 $10 $0 -1%
Will Taylor Fritz win Wimbledon 2025? Aug 10 $22 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Jul 11 $17 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in July? Jul 11 $8 $0 -0%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 10 $21 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum dip to $1900 in July? Jul 10 $10 $0 -0%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 10 $9 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the top AI model on July 31? Jul 10 $11 −$1 -7%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 10 $23 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 10 $12 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.4 in July? Jul 09 $12 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Jul 09 $11 $0 -0%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% in 2025? Jul 09 $11 $0 +0%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Jul 09 $11 $0 +0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 08 $11 $0 +0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Jul 08 $13 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? Jul 07 $11 $0 +0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Jul 06 $18 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jul 06 $11 $0 +0%
Will SPD win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Jul 06 $11 $0 +0%
Will 'The Fantastic Four: First Steps' have the best domestic opening Jul 06 $11 $0 -0%
Will Fluminense win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jul 05 $11 $0 -1%
Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherla Jul 03 $0 $0 +9%
Will 'A Minecraft Movie' have the best domestic opening weekend in 202 Jul 03 $12 $0 -4%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Jun 26 $8 $0 +3%
Will Eric Adams win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City? Jun 26 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 25 $6 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the Eastern Conference? Jun 03 $7 $0 +1%
Will George Russell finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? May 22 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Delhi Capitals win the 2025 Indian Premier League? May 20 $6 $0 +0%
Will Tim Stokely buy TikTok before July? May 19 $7 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $155 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 84¢ $13 17h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 84¢ $43 17h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 84¢ $13 17h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 84¢ $73 17h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $9 24h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $130 24h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $154 27h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $154 27h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $139 46h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $140 46h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $6 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $135 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $140 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 27¢ $4 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 27¢ $57 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 27¢ $35 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 30¢ $107 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $24 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $8 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $16 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $165 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $166 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $152 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $96 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $55 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $82 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $82 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $10 6d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $156.07 · official $156.07 (match) · 218 history records