Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T14:36:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4E
0x4e74…1823
sports · 503 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$198 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$213 · open +$16
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$116
Realized−$213
Unrealized+$16
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses244 / 256
Est. fees paid−$57
Open positions2
Markets (closed)500 / 503
History coverage210d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%
Chart Positions 2 History 500 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$157
7 days+$138
14 days+$70
30 days+$43
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Over 43¢ 100¢ $50 $116 +$66 (+131%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner G2 46¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Knicks vs. Mavericks Mavericks 30¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner Team Spirit 43¢ 0¢ $23 $0 −$23 (-100%)
Grizzlies vs. Spurs Grizzlies 35¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Down 15¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Astralis (BO3) Astralis 56¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Astralis (BO3) Aurora Gaming 58¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Up 59¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Tundra Esports - Game 1 Winner Tundra Esports 52¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs G2 NORD - Game 3 Winner Eintracht Spandau 47¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? Yes 25¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Team Falcons 58¢ 0¢ $23 $0 −$23 (-100%)
Magic vs. Pistons Magic 24¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 213.5 Over 50¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Clippers vs. Hawks Hawks 61¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Passion UA - Map 2 Winner fnatic 8¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs B8 - Map 1 Winner B8 47¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Timberwolves vs. Spurs: O/U 216.5 Over 50¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PARIVISION (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage PARIVISION 70¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Hurricanes vs. Sabres Hurricanes 65¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Spread: Spurs (-1.5) Spurs 54¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Spread: Thunder (-5.5) Spurs 52¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner FUT Esports 69¢ 0¢ $34 $0 −$34 (-100%)
76ers vs. Knicks: O/U 215.5 Over 49¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 13 $44 +$46 +103%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $30 +$39 +132%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $30 +$14 +46%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $20 +$20 +96%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $39 +$22 +58%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $20 −$1 -7%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $21 −$1 -6%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $34 −$34 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $30 +$35 +114%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 12 $34 −$33 -99%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-6.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+6.5) Jun 12 $41 −$40 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $61 +$51 +83%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $61 −$60 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $110 +$68 +62%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $74 +$36 +49%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $47 +$27 +58%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $30 +$17 +57%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $23 −$23 -99%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $35 +$18 +51%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Vitality (-3.5) vs FUT Esports (+3.5) Jun 11 $20 +$15 +74%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $27 −$27 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $21 +$25 +118%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $20 −$20 -98%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 11 $20 −$20 -99%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Vitality (-3.5) vs FUT Esports (+3.5) Jun 11 $41 −$40 -99%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $27 +$25 +91%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $25 +$32 +126%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $41 −$40 -98%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $81 +$74 +91%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $19 −$19 -99%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 11 $24 −$24 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5 May 31 $40 −$39 -98%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 31 $10 +$26 +253%
LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX (BO5) - LEC Playoffs May 31 $51 −$50 -98%
LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX - Game 2 Winner May 31 $40 −$40 -99%
LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX - Game 1 Winner May 31 $15 +$23 +149%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 4 Winner May 31 $34 +$38 +114%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 212.5 May 31 $10 +$9 +86%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner May 30 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $34 −$15 -46%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - BLAST Slam Last Chance Qualif May 30 $30 +$15 +50%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs G2 NORD (BO5) - Prime League 1st Division Pl May 30 $40 −$39 -98%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs G2 NORD - Game 4 Winner May 30 $20 +$19 +95%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner May 30 $23 −$23 -98%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports - Game 2 Winner May 30 $26 +$17 +63%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs G2 NORD - Game 3 Winner May 30 $30 −$30 -98%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs OG - Game 1 Winner May 30 $30 +$14 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 86% −$280
crypto 10% +$16
other 5% +$66
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 46¢ $51 1h
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Over 43¢ $51 1h
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 SELL Over 99¢ $90 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 1 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 99¢ $69 1h
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Over 48¢ $44 2h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL Natus Vincere 99¢ $44 2h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 42¢ $30 2h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Natus Vincere 67¢ $30 3h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 99¢ $40 3h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 50¢ $20 3h
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY B8 34¢ $20 3h
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL FUT Esports 99¢ $61 3h
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 62¢ $39 4h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $19 4h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $19 4h
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 69¢ $34 6h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY 5¢ $31 6h
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) BUY Spirit 63¢ $34 21h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $30 21h
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-6.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+6.5) BUY Spirit 43¢ $41 21h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 42¢ $20 21h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 0¢ $2 21h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 28h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 66¢ $61 28h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 28h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 54¢ $61 40h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner SELL Spirit 100¢ $178 40h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 61¢ $110 43h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner SELL Spirit 99¢ $110 43h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 66¢ $74 44h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -3.0% -12.3% 50% 50% +1.0%
≤30d 120 +1.7% -8.0% 54% 54% -8.4%
≤90d 215 -3.5% -12.7% 50% 50% -11.9%
all 500 -3.1% -12.3% 49% 49% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 49% -12.5%
10% -20.7% 48% -20.9%
15% -28.4% 45% -28.5%
20% -35.4% 37% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $115.75 · official $120.08 · 873 history records