Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T02:57:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
4E 0x4e73…ac97 crypto 55 markets active 0h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1,205 (+6%) realized +$1,252 · open −$47
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate43%23W / 31L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$353per market
Trades / day12.6pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$6,382now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,249
7 days+$1,777
14 days+$1,729
30 days+$1,729
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 74% −$670
crypto 13% +$1,610
sports 12% +$880
world 1% −$137
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-31.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 -16.2% -24.2% 46% 46% +3.3%
≤30d 54 -24.2% -31.4% 43% 41% +2.9%
≤90d 54 -24.2% -31.4% 43% 41% +2.9%
all 54 -24.2% -31.4% 43% 41% +2.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.4% 41% +2.9%
10% -38.0% 33% -7.0%
15% -44.0% 26% -16.0%
20% -49.5% 22% -24.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 72% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt +14% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -40% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$208 vs −$99 · ×2.11 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.57 per $1 lost it wins $1.57
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$6,382
Realized+$1,252
Unrealized−$47
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses23 / 31
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions1
Markets (closed)54 / 55
History coverage8d
Avg bet$353
Trades / day12.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 70¢ 69¢ $6,429 $6,382 −$47 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 27 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $1,012 +$658 +65%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $4,102 +$1,730 +42%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $2,410 +$1,693 +70%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $2,043 −$2,000 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $832 +$168 +20%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $625 −$408 -65%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $191 −$7 -4%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $76 +$24 +32%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $47 +$53 +114%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $61 +$39 +65%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $58 +$42 +73%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $48 +$52 +109%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $77 −$76 -99%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $57 −$56 -99%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $61 −$31 -51%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $52 −$51 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $215 +$64 +30%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $163 +$37 +23%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $77 +$23 +30%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$49 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -94%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $137 −$137 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $28 +$22 +78%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $53 +$47 +90%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $31 −$31 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$5 +163%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $28 −$28 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $25 −$25 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $67 −$66 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $26 +$24 +93%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $15 +$35 +226%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $28 −$27 -98%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$9 +171%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $6,487 1m
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 60¢ $1,012 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 95¢ $4,180 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $3,900 7h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 7h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 7h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $2,410 19h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 17¢ $1,025 22h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 40¢ $509 23h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 39¢ $509 23h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 83¢ $1 24h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 83¢ $393 24h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 83¢ $438 24h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 20¢ $4 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $38 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $376 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 52¢ $205 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 62¢ $184 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $64 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $127 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $53 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $105 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $53 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 75¢ $76 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $77 3d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $57 3d
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 46¢ $47 3d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 30¢ $31 3d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $52 3d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 29¢ $28 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,382.10 · official $6,383.02 (match) · 118 history records