Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T10:58:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
4E 0x4e71…dd82 other 14 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$26 (+2%) realized +$30 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate69%9W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$119per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Kalshi-fit7%portable
Net worth$262now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 94% −$185
crypto 6% +$70
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-17.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -8.8% -17.4% 69% 38% -16.4%
≤30d 13 -8.8% -17.4% 69% 38% -16.4%
≤90d 13 -8.8% -17.4% 69% 38% -16.4%
all 13 -8.8% -17.4% 69% 38% -16.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.4% 38% -16.4%
10% -25.3% 31% -24.4%
15% -32.6% 31% -31.7%
20% -39.2% 23% -38.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 52% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$97 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$262
Realized+$30
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses9 / 4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)13 / 14
History coverage4d
Avg bet$119
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit7%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 68¢ 66¢ $191 $187 −$4 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $47 +$30 +63%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $105 −$100 -95%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $104 −$100 -96%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $178 +$75 +42%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $106 −$106 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $105 +$70 +67%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $198 +$18 +9%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $105 +$22 +21%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $105 +$54 +51%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $104 +$3 +3%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $104 +$1 +0%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $105 −$82 -78%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $104 +$5 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $200 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 60¢ $47 10h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 71¢ $105 12h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 84¢ $104 34h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $178 39h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $105 42h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 40¢ $106 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 88¢ $198 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 79¢ $105 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 63¢ $105 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $108 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 89¢ $104 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 96¢ $104 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 18¢ $23 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 74¢ $105 3d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $109 4d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 88¢ $104 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $261.79 · official $261.79 (match) · 24 history records