Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T19:25:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4E
0x4e6e…fa58
other · 67 markets active 1h ago
1.0score
+$504 +2%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$597 · open −$93
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$665
Realized+$597
Unrealized−$93
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses22 / 39
Whale WR (big bets)56%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions6
Markets (closed)61 / 67
History coverage18d
Avg bet$303
Trades / day31.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit9%
Chart Positions 6 History 61 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$449
7 days+$60
14 days+$330
30 days+$597
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 26¢ 24¢ $186 $171 −$15 (-8%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 24¢ 16¢ $240 $158 −$82 (-34%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $154 $153 −$1 (-1%)
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Under 66¢ 70¢ $100 $107 +$7 (+7%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 58¢ 58¢ $59 $59 +$1 (+1%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Yes 18¢ 16¢ $18 $17 −$2 (-8%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Yes 49¢ 0¢ $634 $0 −$634 (-100%)
Spurs vs. Knicks Spurs 88¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 33¢ 0¢ $288 $0 −$288 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Yes 21¢ 0¢ $60 $0 −$60 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 13 $59 −$12 -21%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 13 $101 −$31 -31%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 13 $12 −$5 -42%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 13 $78 −$32 -41%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 13 $148 −$83 -56%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 13 $77 −$15 -19%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $146 +$155 +107%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $75 −$74 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $502 +$516 +103%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $508 +$63 +12%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 12 $51 −$32 -63%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 11 $26 −$11 -41%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 11 $11 −$5 -48%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $297 −$288 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $65 −$45 -68%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 10 $3 +$2 +51%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $607 +$818 +135%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 09 $11 −$3 -24%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $703 −$622 -88%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $144 −$74 -51%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 07 $139 −$55 -40%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $173 −$98 -57%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $185 +$50 +27%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $198 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $349 −$67 -19%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $147 +$3 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $431 +$23 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $140 +$145 +104%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 04 $24 −$7 -28%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 04 $3 $0 -5%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 04 $8 −$1 -7%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 03 $346 −$53 -15%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $1,065 −$200 -19%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $534 +$288 +54%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 03 $181 −$92 -51%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $1,177 −$10 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 02 $19 $0 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 02 $162 −$46 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 02 $10 +$10 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 02 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 02 $2 −$2 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 02 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $507 +$77 +15%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $764 −$20 -3%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? Jun 01 $488 +$452 +93%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? Jun 01 $1,600 +$50 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? May 31 $587 −$271 -46%
Will Elon Musk post 840-879 tweets in May 2026? May 31 $622 −$136 -22%
Will Elon Musk post 800-839 tweets in May 2026? May 31 $94 +$74 +79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 99% +$495
sports 1% −$2
crypto 0% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $47 1h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $25 1h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $45 1h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $7 1h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $46 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $53 1h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $160 1h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $19 1h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $46 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $11 4h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 4h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $6 4h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 5h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $3 5h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 5h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 6h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 6h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 7h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 7h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 7h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $46 7h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $34 7h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $24 8h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $5 8h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $5 8h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 8h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 8h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $6 8h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 18¢ $19 12h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $59 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -25.7% -32.8% 22% 22% -8.1%
≤30d 61 -5.9% -14.9% 36% 25% -6.7%
≤90d 61 -5.9% -14.9% 36% 25% -6.7%
all 61 -5.9% -14.9% 36% 25% -6.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover31.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.9% 25% -6.7%
10% ← realistic here -23.0% 21% -15.6%
15% -30.5% 20% -23.8%
20% -37.3% 18% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $664.62 · official $664.62 (match) · 572 history records