Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T22:48:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
4E 0x4e66…c6e2 other 7 markets active 2h ago coverage 10d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$91 (-18%) realized −$40 · open −$51
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%2W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$71per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit14%portable
Net worth$172now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 10d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 92% −$126
crypto 8% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-32.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -24.9% -32.1% 50% 50% -34.8%
≤30d 4 -24.9% -32.1% 50% 50% -34.8%
≤90d 4 -24.9% -32.1% 50% 50% -34.8%
all 4 -24.9% -32.1% 50% 50% -34.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.1% 50% -34.8%
10% -38.6% 50% -41.0%
15% -44.5% 25% -46.7%
20% -50.0% 0% -52.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$57 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$172
Realized−$40
Unrealized−$51
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses2 / 2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)4 / 7
History coverage10d
Avg bet$71
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit14%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Yes 79¢ 58¢ $124 $92 −$32 (-26%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $60 $42 −$18 (-31%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $39 $38 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $101 +$24 +24%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $42 −$42 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $28 +$14 +48%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $100 −$71 -72%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 79¢ $125 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $125 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 80¢ $101 2h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $42 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $28 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 18¢ $28 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 61¢ $100 4d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $40 10d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $62 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $171.94 · official $140.54 · 20 history records