Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:08:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4E 0x4e65…9335 crypto 1052 markets active 3h ago coverage 30d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 29d only
✗ bot/MM pace (88 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,866 (-5%) realized −$1,866 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate56%591W / 461L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day87.7pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$14
7 days−$14
14 days−$81
30 days−$1,008
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,018
other 0% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (88 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-20.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -20.5% -28.1% 50% 38% -23.2%
≤30d 1052 -12.5% -20.8% 56% 26% -11.9%
≤90d 1052 -12.5% -20.8% 56% 26% -11.9%
all 1052 -12.5% -20.8% 56% 26% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover87.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.8% 26% -11.9%
10% ← realistic here -28.4% 20% -20.4%
15% -35.3% 16% -28.1%
20% -41.7% 13% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
52% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$6 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,866
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses591 / 461
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1052 / 1052
History coverage30d ⚠
Avg bet$36
Trades / day87.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1052 Trades
no open positions (190 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$4 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +110%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +65%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$2 +44%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +26%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $7 −$2 -25%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +83%
Solana Up or Down - June 4, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 08 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 08 $40 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 08 $43 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 08 $3 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 08 $3 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 08 $3 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 08 $3 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 08 $43 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 08 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 08 $3 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 08 $3 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 08 $1 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 08 $44 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 08 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 08 $3 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 08 $43 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 08 $2 +$1 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 08 $42 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 08 $43 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 08 $43 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $3 5h
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $2 5h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $3 5h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $3 8h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $4 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $4 11h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $2 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 27h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $4 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $5 27h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 27h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $5 27h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $3 27h
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $42 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $40 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $43 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records