Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T13:58:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4E
0x4e65…8443
crypto · 525 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$324 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$323 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$199
Realized−$323
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses258 / 273
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions2
Markets (closed)531 / 525
History coverage27d
Avg bet$78
Trades / day97.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 2 History 531 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$226
7 days−$2,909
14 days−$5,206
30 days−$323
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10AM ET Up 55¢ 56¢ $165 $166 +$2 (+1%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9AM ET Up 35¢ 32¢ $35 $32 −$2 (-7%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Down 48¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Up 49¢ 0¢ $23 $0 −$23 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 8AM ET Down 54¢ 0¢ $27 $0 −$27 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $45 $0 −$45 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Up 49¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 11PM ET Down 33¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $24 $0 −$24 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Up 52¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Down 46¢ 0¢ $37 $0 −$37 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Up 20¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Down 19¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Up 55¢ 0¢ $31 $0 −$31 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $69 $0 −$69 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Up 8¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Up 9¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Down 54¢ 0¢ $53 $0 −$53 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Down 44¢ 0¢ $188 $0 −$188 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Down 49¢ 0¢ $91 $0 −$91 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $51 $0 −$51 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Up 43¢ 0¢ $81 $0 −$81 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Down 53¢ 0¢ $45 $0 −$45 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3AM ET Down 4¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Down 45¢ 0¢ $21 $0 −$21 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$8 +748%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 11AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 10PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 9PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$5 +594%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$18 +3009%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$12 +858%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $93 +$67 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $63 −$61 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 12 $64 +$59 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 12 $123 −$121 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7AM ET Jun 12 $34 +$31 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 12 $31 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 12 $64 −$62 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 12 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 12 $37 +$28 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6AM ET Jun 12 $36 +$30 +83%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 12 $64 +$55 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 12 $309 +$204 +66%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 12 $24 +$20 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 12 $31 +$54 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 12 $31 +$22 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 12 $53 −$50 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 12 $201 +$168 +84%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 12 $55 −$53 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 12 $21 −$21 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 12 $392 +$308 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 12 $440 −$439 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 12 $193 −$193 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 12 $60 −$58 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 12 $22 −$22 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 12 $133 −$129 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $53 −$51 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 12 $24 +$76 +320%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 12 $58 +$42 +74%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 12 $16 −$15 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$10 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 12 $25 +$25 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 12 $30 +$26 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 12 $78 +$71 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 12 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 12 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 12 $20 +$3 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 12 $25 −$25 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 12 $49 +$41 +84%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10PM ET Jun 12 $95 +$85 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 12 $55 +$43 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 12 $38 −$37 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9PM ET Jun 12 $28 −$26 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 98% +$185
sports 2% −$545
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $55 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $58 7m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $56 16m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $4 27m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $33 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $63 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $57 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $64 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $57 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $49 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $64 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $37 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $66 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $13 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $96 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $34 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $64 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $1 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $3 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $5 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $30 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-5.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 343 +12.0% +1.4% 49% 49% -21.9%
≤30d 531 +4.7% -5.2% 49% 48% -10.3%
≤90d 531 +4.7% -5.2% 49% 48% -10.3%
all 531 +4.7% -5.2% 49% 48% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover97.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.2% 48% -10.3%
10% ← realistic here -14.3% 47% -18.9%
15% -22.6% 46% -26.7%
20% -30.2% 44% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $199.00 · official $199.00 (match) · 3500 history records