Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:05:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4E 0x4e64…b666 other 40 markets active 2h ago coverage 377d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate26%10W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 56% −$6
other 30% $0
politics 4% $0
finance 4% $0
economics 2% +$2
tech 2% $0
sports 2% $0
crypto 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-6.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.6% -10.1% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 14 -0.6% -10.1% 7% 0% -10.5%
≤90d 14 -0.6% -10.1% 7% 0% -10.5%
all 39 +3.0% -6.8% 26% 5% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.8% 5% -9.9%
10% -15.7% 5% -18.5%
15% -23.9% 5% -26.4%
20% -31.3% 5% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 71% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.46 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

377d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses10 / 29
Open positions1
Markets (closed)39 / 40
History coverage377d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 56¢ 57¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $34 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $61 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $1 $0 -3%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $7 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 17 $62 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $11 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $67 +$4 +5%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $92 −$10 -10%
Will Alberta join the US? May 30 $28 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $34 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 28 $41 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 27 $41 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 26 $37 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 25 $42 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Dec 15 $2 $0 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Dec 15 $4 +$2 +56%
Israel strike on Iran on June 23? Jun 22 $17 $0 -1%
Will reconciliation bill be passed by June 30? Jun 22 $16 $0 -1%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Jun 21 $2 $0 -22%
Will Pascal Siakam Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 19 $7 $0 +0%
Will Inter Milan win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 19 $14 $0 +0%
Will Pedri win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 19 $15 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 18 $20 $0 +2%
Will Elon tweet 130–144 times June 13–20? Jun 18 $16 $0 -2%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? Jun 17 $18 $0 -0%
Will Juventus win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 17 $5 $0 -0%
Will Vitinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 17 $2 +$2 +103%
Will 'The Fantastic Four: First Steps' have the best domestic opening Jun 16 $17 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? Jun 16 $37 $0 -0%
Will Keir Starmer be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 15 $17 $0 +0%
Will Powell say "Good Afternoon" during June Press Conference? Jun 15 $17 $0 -0%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 Jun 14 $1 $0 -5%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on June 30? Jun 14 $15 $0 -0%
Will Nicolás Maduro be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 12 $18 $0 +0%
Will Jennifer Geerlings-Simons be the next president of Suriname after Jun 12 $10 $0 -1%
Will the Pacers beat the Thunder 4-1? Jun 12 $10 −$1 -7%
Will Trump declare martial law in LA by Friday? Jun 11 $10 $0 +2%
Will annual inflation increase by 2.2% or less in May? Jun 11 $8 $0 +1%
Will Eva Copa win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jun 10 $20 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $34 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $34 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $31 14h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $31 18h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $31 18h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $31 25h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 39h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 40h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 40h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $2 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $4 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 55¢ $35 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 55¢ $35 2d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $11 18d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 31¢ $6 18d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 31¢ $5 18d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 100¢ $4 18d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $5 19d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $2 19d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $21 19d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $28 19d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $31 19d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $30 19d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 96¢ $31 20d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 96¢ $10 20d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 96¢ $21 20d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $28 20d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $28 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.55 · official $0.00 (match) · 161 history records