Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T17:23:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5

score

4E 0x4e60…84aa other 16 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$372 (+49%) realized +$371 · open +$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip

Net edge-15%after slip

Net WR36%break-even

Win rate36%5W / 9L

Drawdown36%max

Avg bet$47per market

Trades / day15.8pace

Fees−$6est.

Kalshi-fit44%portable

Net worth$101now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +36%

net ROI/market (all)-7.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	14	+2.2%	-7.5%	36%	36%	+42.2%
≤30d	14	+2.2%	-7.5%	36%	36%	+42.2%
≤90d	14	+2.2%	-7.5%	36%	36%	+42.2%
all	14	+2.2%	-7.5%	36%	36%	+42.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover15.8 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-7.5%	36%	+42.2%
10%	-16.4%	36%	+28.6%
15%	-24.5%	21%	+16.2%
20%	-31.9%	21%	+4.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 61% · top 2 90% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +57% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +2% · $-wt +57% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -35% → late +40% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$130 vs −$32 · ×4.04 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×2.24 per $1 lost it wins $2.24

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage

Net worth$101

Realized+$371

Unrealized+$1

Win rate (resolved)36%

Wins / losses5 / 9

Est. fees paid−$6

Open positions1

Markets (closed)14 / 16

History coverage2d

Avg bet$47

Trades / day15.8

Drawdown36%

Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 14 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
DR Congo to score first vs. Uzbekistan?	Yes	63¢	64¢	$100	$101	+$1 (+1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw?	Jun 27	$102	+$192	+188%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 3 Belgium?	Jun 27	$10	+$2	+20%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 27	$103	+$26	+26%
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 2 Belgium?	Jun 27	$10	−$10	-98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 27	$102	−$100	-98%
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 1 Spain?	Jun 27	$10	+$35	+340%
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 1 Spain?	Jun 27	$10	−$10	-100%
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 2 Spain?	Jun 27	$6	−$6	-100%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5	Jun 27	$32	−$24	-74%
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 2 Spain?	Jun 27	$9	−$9	-100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 26	$115	+$394	+343%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 26	$51	−$50	-98%
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw?	Jun 26	$51	−$50	-98%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5	Jun 25	$30	−$30	-99%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
DR Congo to score first vs. Uzbekistan?	BUY Yes	63¢	$101	1h
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 3 Belgium?	SELL Yes	54¢	$12	12h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26?	SELL Yes	10¢	$35	12h
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 3 Belgium?	BUY Yes	9¢	$10	13h
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 2 Belgium?	BUY Yes	19¢	$10	13h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26?	SELL Yes	27¢	$94	13h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	40¢	$102	14h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw?	BUY Yes	34¢	$102	14h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	14¢	$103	14h
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 1 Spain?	SELL Yes	95¢	$45	15h
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 1 Spain?	BUY Yes	7¢	$0	15h
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 1 Spain?	BUY Yes	7¢	$7	15h
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 1 Spain?	BUY Yes	7¢	$0	15h
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 1 Spain?	BUY Yes	7¢	$3	15h
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 2 Spain?	BUY Yes	8¢	$0	15h
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 1 Spain?	BUY Yes	7¢	$1	15h
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 2 Spain?	BUY Yes	8¢	$6	15h
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 1 Spain?	BUY Yes	21¢	$10	16h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5	SELL Over	44¢	$8	16h
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 2 Spain?	BUY Yes	6¢	$9	16h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	32¢	$6	17h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	32¢	$11	17h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	32¢	$8	17h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	32¢	$1	17h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	32¢	$5	17h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	32¢	$0	17h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25?	SELL Yes	100¢	$401	37h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	22¢	$51	38h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw?	BUY Yes	27¢	$51	38h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25?	SELL Yes	51¢	$109	38h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $100.79 · official $100.79 (match) · 36 history records