Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T07:55:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4E 0x4e60…da40 crypto 239 markets active 1h ago coverage 160d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$124 (-1%) realized −$100 · open −$24
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate43%100W / 134L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$320
7 days−$197
14 days−$71
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 77% −$428
politics 8% −$47
other 7% −$34
sports 5% +$184
world 2% +$116
economics 1% −$55
culture 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-16.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 -16.4% -24.3% 26% 26% -25.3%
≤30d 61 -7.4% -16.2% 30% 30% -10.1%
≤90d 187 -15.7% -23.7% 37% 31% -16.1%
all 234 -7.6% -16.4% 43% 38% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.4% 38% -11.7%
10% -24.4% 34% -20.1%
15% -31.7% 28% -27.9%
20% -38.4% 21% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$21 · ×1.22 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

160d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized−$100
Unrealized−$24
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses100 / 134
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions5
Markets (closed)234 / 239
History coverage160d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 234 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 27¢ 24¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-10%)
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 0.5 Under 6¢ 5¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-7%)
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-32%)
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-35%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Yes 5¢ 1¢ $20 $2 −$18 (-89%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 16 $20 +$10 +51%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Draw at halftime? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 16 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 16 $30 −$30 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $25 −$25 -100%
Uruguay leading at halftime? Jun 16 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $67 −$15 -22%
KBO: Kiwoom Heroes vs. Lotte Giants Jun 16 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the Democratic Party win 15 upper-level local government races? Jun 16 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the Democratic Party win 14 upper-level local government races? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Choo Mi-ae win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province gubernatorial election Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
New Zealand leading at halftime? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Draw at halftime? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. Lotte Giants Jun 16 $30 −$30 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 16 $29 −$29 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Will voter turnout be between 50% and 55% in the 2026 Seoul mayoral el Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Korea Republic leading at halftime? Jun 16 $26 −$26 -100%
Japan leading at halftime? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Park Chan-dae win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election by between 20 Jun 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election by 9% or more? Jun 16 $23 −$23 -100%
Will South Korea GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 2.0% and 2.4%? Jun 16 $30 −$30 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $31 −$31 -100%
Will South Korea GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 1.5% and 1.9%? Jun 16 $25 −$25 -100%
South Africa leading at halftime? Jun 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Kim Boo-kyum win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Jun 16 $67 −$67 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 16 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 16 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $26 +$60 +234%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Draw at halftime? Jun 16 $20 +$22 +107%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $15 +$45 +292%
Egypt leading at halftime? Jun 15 $25 +$11 +42%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $10 +$90 +873%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $25 +$42 +166%
Sweden leading at halftime? Jun 15 $15 +$16 +105%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $46 +$137 +298%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $31 −$13 -43%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $16 +$20 +124%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 13 $20 +$13 +65%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $46 +$110 +239%
Will Park Wan-soo win the 2026 Gyeongsangnam Province Gubernatorial El Jun 04 $26 +$61 +236%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election by between 6% an Jun 03 $10 +$7 +70%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election by between 3% an Jun 03 $31 −$21 -69%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $20 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 6¢ $10 3h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $85 4h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 99¢ $42 5h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 6h
New Zealand leading at halftime? BUY Yes 67¢ $20 6h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 7h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $26 7h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 47¢ $20 7h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $25 9h
Uruguay leading at halftime? BUY Yes 48¢ $25 10h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $60 10h
Egypt leading at halftime? SELL Yes 99¢ $36 12h
Egypt leading at halftime? BUY Yes 69¢ $25 12h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 31¢ $31 12h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 12h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 12h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $100 13h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $68 13h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 13h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 22¢ $15 14h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 14h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $25 14h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 4¢ $15 14h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 8¢ $5 22h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $25 22h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 10¢ $10 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $3 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $21 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $26 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.17 · official $36.17 (match) · 902 history records