Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:45:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
4E 0x4e5c…d892 weather 294 markets active 1h ago coverage 48d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 48d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (68 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$5,829 (-7%) realized −$5,793 · open −$36
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate75%217W / 74L
Whale WR79%big bets
Drawdown91%max
Avg bet$298per market
Trades / day68.3pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$156now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 48d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 90% +$2,080
world 6% +$350
sports 2% −$321
politics 1% −$411
other 0% −$17
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (68 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)+9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +34.8% +22.0% 71% 33% +7.0%
≤30d 206 +2.8% -7.0% 72% 30% -7.6%
≤90d 291 +21.2% +9.7% 75% 30% -7.8%
all 291 +21.2% +9.7% 75% 30% -7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover68.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +9.7% 30% -7.8%
10% ← realistic here -0.8% 14% -16.6%
15% -10.4% 12% -24.6%
20% -19.2% 9% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +21% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 79% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +40% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
6.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$59 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.39 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

48d coverage
Net worth$156
Realized−$5,793
Unrealized−$36
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses217 / 74
Whale WR (big bets)79%
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions3
Markets (closed)291 / 294
History coverage48d ⚠
Avg bet$298
Trades / day68.3
Drawdown91%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 291 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 13¢ $153 $134 −$20 (-13%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $16 $22 +$6 (+41%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 17? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $24 $0 −$23 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $459 +$166 +36%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 18? Jun 17 $279 +$3 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 18? Jun 17 $517 +$176 +34%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 17? Jun 17 $206 +$22 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 17? Jun 17 $155 +$17 +11%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Jun Jun 17 $30 −$6 -18%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 18? Jun 17 $0 $0 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $88 −$54 -61%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $25 +$5 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $19 −$17 -89%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? Jun 17 $5 −$1 -16%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $263 +$10 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $114 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16? Jun 16 $13 +$90 +671%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 13°C on June 15? Jun 15 $56 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $36 +$58 +163%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 15? Jun 15 $30 −$3 -8%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? Jun 15 $27 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $144 +$6 +4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $95 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $96 +$4 +4%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on Jun Jun 05 $89 +$10 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 30°C on June 4? Jun 04 $86 +$18 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 31°C or higher on June 4? Jun 04 $124 +$49 +39%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 4? Jun 04 $351 +$16 +5%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 4? Jun 04 $92 −$7 -8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 04 $926 −$26 -3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 04 $934 +$68 +7%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on June 4? Jun 04 $31 −$27 -87%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on June 4? Jun 04 $40 −$22 -56%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 4? Jun 04 $213 +$89 +42%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 14°C on June 4? Jun 04 $138 −$32 -23%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 4? Jun 04 $344 +$108 +31%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 13°C on June 4? Jun 04 $14 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 4? Jun 04 $719 +$32 +4%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on Jun Jun 04 $0 $0 -5%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 3? Jun 03 $4 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 3? Jun 03 $1,139 +$11 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on June 3? Jun 03 $739 +$17 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 3? Jun 03 $116 −$4 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 3? Jun 03 $50 +$50 +99%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 3? Jun 03 $144 +$9 +6%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 3? Jun 03 $0 $0 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 3? Jun 03 $14 −$14 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 3? Jun 03 $43 +$5 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 3? Jun 03 $121 +$15 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 3? Jun 03 $234 +$11 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 2? Jun 02 $79 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 2? Jun 02 $234 +$14 +6%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 2? Jun 02 $355 +$68 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $281 39m
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 18? SELL No 99¢ $24 40m
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 18? SELL No 99¢ $2 40m
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 18? SELL No 99¢ $314 40m
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 18? SELL No 99¢ $100 41m
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 18? SELL No 99¢ $120 41m
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 18? SELL No 99¢ $120 41m
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 18? SELL No 99¢ $10 42m
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 18? SELL No 99¢ $1 42m
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 18? SELL No 99¢ $3 42m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 17? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 45m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 17? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 46m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 17? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 46m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 17? BUY Yes 8¢ $4 47m
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 18? BUY No 87¢ $350 50m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 17? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 51m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 17? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 51m
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 17? SELL No 97¢ $94 53m
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 17? SELL Yes 97¢ $172 53m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 17? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 58m
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 18? BUY No 55¢ $56 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 17? BUY Yes 12¢ $6 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 18? BUY No 55¢ $44 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 18? BUY No 54¢ $67 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 18? BUY No 98¢ $49 1h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 17? SELL No 97¢ $133 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $230 1h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 17? BUY Yes 80¢ $42 2h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 17? BUY No 78¢ $31 2h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 17? BUY No 86¢ $39 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $156.13 · official $156.13 (match) · 3500 history records