Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T00:04:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4E 0x4e5b…74d4 other 13 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$12 (+2%) realized +$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate46%6W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$58per market
Trades / day12.7pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit31%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 84% −$21
sports 16% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-1.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +8.5% -1.9% 46% 46% -12.3%
≤30d 13 +8.5% -1.9% 46% 46% -12.3%
≤90d 13 +8.5% -1.9% 46% 46% -12.3%
all 13 +8.5% -1.9% 46% 46% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.9% 46% -12.3%
10% -11.3% 46% -20.7%
15% -19.8% 38% -28.4%
20% -27.7% 31% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 52% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +45% → late -23% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$28 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses6 / 7
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)13 / 13
History coverage2d
Avg bet$58
Trades / day12.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit31%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 13 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 24 $18 −$18 -97%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $62 −$44 -70%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $124 −$62 -50%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $129 −$5 -4%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $89 +$40 +45%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $31 −$11 -36%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $25 +$14 +55%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $71 +$16 +23%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 24 $31 −$17 -57%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $44 +$44 +101%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $84 −$40 -48%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $25 +$13 +52%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $24 +$47 +197%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 11m
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $18 43m
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 9¢ $18 44m
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 29¢ $62 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 39¢ $62 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 76¢ $124 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 73¢ $124 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $129 3h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $129 3h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 66¢ $19 3h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? SELL Yes 22¢ $20 3h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 69¢ $70 3h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $31 5h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $25 23h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $87 23h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 81¢ $71 23h
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 14¢ $13 23h
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $31 24h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $88 26h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 49¢ $44 26h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 45¢ $44 26h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $84 28h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $25 45h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $71 46h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 33¢ $24 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 27 history records