Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T00:45:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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4E 0x4e5a…7032 crypto 536 markets active 2h ago coverage 162d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 162d only
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$5,370 (-19%) realized −$5,373 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate43%239W / 320L
Whale WR20%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day19.1pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$626now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$547
7 days−$633
14 days−$633
30 days−$633
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 49% −$615
world 36% −$4,092
other 11% +$973
sports 5% −$180
tech 0% −$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)+2.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 +103.2% +83.8% 29% 27% -6.8%
≤30d 41 +103.2% +83.8% 29% 27% -6.8%
≤90d 41 +103.2% +83.8% 29% 27% -6.8%
all 559 +13.3% +2.5% 43% 39% -26.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.5% 39% -26.7%
10% -7.3% 38% -33.7%
15% -16.2% 37% -40.1%
20% -24.4% 36% -46.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -62% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 20% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +10% → late +16% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$30 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

162d coverage
Net worth$626
Realized−$5,373
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses239 / 320
Whale WR (big bets)20%
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions6
Markets (closed)559 / 536
History coverage162d ⚠
Avg bet$52
Trades / day19.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 559 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $302 $300 −$2 (-1%)
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Argentina 38¢ 38¢ $177 $174 −$2 (-1%)
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Argentina 19¢ 18¢ $88 $86 −$2 (-3%)
Spread: Argentina (-3.5) Argentina 8¢ 7¢ $36 $35 −$1 (-3%)
Spread: Argentina (-4.5) Argentina 3¢ 6¢ $14 $27 +$12 (+83%)
Spread: Argentina (-5.5) Argentina 1¢ 1¢ $6 $4 −$1 (-23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 255 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will VfB Stuttgart vs. BSC Young Boys end in a draw? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 29, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 22 $1 +$3 +246%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 3, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$31 -638%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 5, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 22 $0 −$183 -78885%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 2, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 2, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 22 $9 +$29 +309%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 2, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 29, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 5, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 22 $4 −$240 -6490%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 5, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 22 $0 +$31 +9091%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 6, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 22 $0 −$87 -41419%
Will BSC Young Boys win on 2026-01-29? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 9, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 29, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 29, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 22 $46 +$88 +193%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 3, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 28, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 28, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 9, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 22 $13 +$22 +170%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 5, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 3, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 22 $1 +$41 +3054%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 5, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 28, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 29, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 22 $142 +$10 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 4, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 22 $1 +$64 +8838%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 3, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$162 -23728%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 9, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$59 -4355%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 7, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 22 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 5, 5PM ET Jun 22 $9 −$8 -83%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $167 +$83 +50%
Spread: Germany (-5.5) Jun 20 $13 −$13 -99%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 20 $17 −$17 -97%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 20 $26 −$25 -97%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 20 $59 −$58 -98%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $107 −$105 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $69 +$61 +90%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 20 $96 +$34 +36%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $116 +$14 +12%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 Jun 19 $25 −$25 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) Jun 19 $23 −$22 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) Jun 19 $40 −$39 -98%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Feb 28 $8,129 −$3,074 -38%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in February? Feb 28 $579 −$575 -99%
Iran Strike on Israel by February 28? Feb 28 $1,588 −$939 -59%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by February 28? Feb 28 $10 −$10 -100%
US strikes Iraq by February 28? Feb 28 $43 +$328 +753%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 28, 2026 (ET)? Feb 28 $84 −$84 -100%
Will Coinbase be accused of insider trading? Feb 27 $10 $0 +3%
Will AAVE be accused of insider trading? Feb 27 $10 $0 +1%
Will Axiom be accused of insider trading? Feb 27 $102 +$452 +441%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Argentina (-5.5) BUY Argentina 1¢ $0 1h
Spread: Argentina (-5.5) BUY Argentina 1¢ $2 1h
Spread: Argentina (-4.5) BUY Argentina 3¢ $5 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $114 1h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 38¢ $67 1h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Argentina 19¢ $34 1h
Spread: Argentina (-3.5) BUY Argentina 8¢ $14 1h
Spread: Argentina (-5.5) BUY Argentina 1¢ $0 1h
Spread: Argentina (-5.5) BUY Argentina 1¢ $1 1h
Spread: Argentina (-4.5) BUY Argentina 3¢ $0 1h
Spread: Argentina (-4.5) BUY Argentina 3¢ $1 1h
Spread: Argentina (-3.5) BUY Argentina 8¢ $1 1h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Argentina 19¢ $3 1h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 38¢ $7 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $11 1h
Spread: Argentina (-4.5) BUY Argentina 3¢ $4 1h
Spread: Argentina (-3.5) BUY Argentina 8¢ $10 1h
Spread: Argentina (-5.5) BUY Argentina 1¢ $0 1h
Spread: Argentina (-5.5) BUY Argentina 1¢ $0 1h
Spread: Argentina (-5.5) BUY Argentina 1¢ $2 1h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Argentina 19¢ $26 1h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 38¢ $51 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $87 1h
Spread: Argentina (-3.5) BUY Argentina 8¢ $11 1h
Spread: Argentina (-4.5) BUY Argentina 3¢ $4 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $93 2h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 38¢ $55 2h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Argentina 19¢ $28 2h
Spread: Argentina (-5.5) BUY Argentina 1¢ $0 2h
Spread: Argentina (-5.5) BUY Argentina 1¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $625.90 · official $625.90 (match) · 3500 history records