Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:02:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4E 0x4e59…e56a sports 78 markets active 1h ago coverage 216d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$272 (-1%) realized −$272 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +7% what you keep after slip
Net edge+7%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate74%58W / 20L
Whale WR79%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$454per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$81
7 days−$1,532
14 days−$2,453
30 days−$459
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 36% +$243
sports 35% +$2,091
world 29% −$2,618
crypto 1% −$9
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)+6.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -17.3% -25.2% 58% 5% -18.6%
≤30d 45 -3.7% -12.9% 76% 16% -10.8%
≤90d 64 +23.7% +12.0% 77% 12% -10.8%
all 78 +18.1% +6.8% 74% 15% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +6.8% 15% -10.3%
10% -3.4% 12% -18.9%
15% -12.7% 9% -26.7%
20% -21.3% 6% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
79% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 79% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +41% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$52 vs −$195 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

216d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$272
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses58 / 20
Whale WR (big bets)79%
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions0
Markets (closed)78 / 78
History coverage216d
Avg bet$454
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 78 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
T20 World Cup Sub Regional Americas Qualifier: Bermuda vs Bahamas Jun 21 $3 −$1 -32%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 21 $200 +$2 +1%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Scotland - Who wins the toss? Jun 20 $88 +$79 +90%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi Jun 20 $29 $0 +0%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Nigeria - Who wins the toss? Jun 20 $29 $0 +0%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Nigeria Jun 20 $961 +$1 +0%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Nigeria - Completed match? Jun 20 $465 $0 +0%
o1 FDV above $1B one day after launch? Jun 18 $2,452 +$2 +0%
Will Spencer Pratt concede by June 15? Jun 18 $0 $0 +0%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Malawi vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi Jun 18 $28 $0 +0%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Brazil Jun 18 $2,462 +$80 +3%
Will o1 launch a token by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $2,370 +$2 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 18 $90 −$90 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $4,952 −$720 -14%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 17 $208 −$208 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $574 −$574 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? Jun 16 $172 −$11 -6%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $135 −$95 -70%
Norrie vs. Navone: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 Jun 15 $10 $0 +0%
Set 1 Winner: Norrie vs Navone Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Norrie vs. Navone: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June Jun 13 $0 $0 +50%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $2,335 +$671 +29%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Nigeria - Completed match? Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by July 31, 2026? Jun 12 $1,602 −$1,592 -99%
Will Botafogo FR win on 2026-05-27? Jun 06 $4,033 +$9 +0%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans - May 31 $1,403 +$13 +1%
World Championships: Canada vs. Norway May 31 $2,242 +$1,125 +50%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Draw at halftime? May 30 $2,143 +$12 +1%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 May 30 $197 +$1 +0%
T20 Series England vs. India, Women: England vs India - Who wins the t May 30 $922 +$732 +79%
Spread: Nice (-2.5) May 30 $302 +$4 +1%
Will Nice win on 2026-05-29? May 30 $323 +$3 +1%
Will Nice vs. Saint-Etienne end in a draw? May 30 $129 +$1 +1%
Nice vs. Saint-Etienne: O/U 3.5 May 30 $24 +$6 +24%
Nice vs. Saint-Etienne: O/U 2.5 May 30 $382 +$35 +9%
Nice leading at halftime? May 30 $66 +$1 +1%
Nice vs. Saint-Etienne: Draw at halftime? May 30 $198 +$2 +1%
Saint-Etienne leading at halftime? May 30 $66 +$1 +1%
Exact Score: Nice 0 - 0 Saint-Etienne? May 30 $451 +$49 +11%
Nice vs. Saint-Etienne: O/U 4.5 May 30 $69 +$1 +1%
Caracas FC vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 3.5 May 29 $55 $0 +1%
T20 Series England vs. India, Women: England vs India - Completed matc May 28 $55 $0 +0%
Will Caracas FC win on 2026-05-27? May 28 $46 $0 +0%
ODI Series England vs. New Zealand, Women: England vs New Zealand - Te May 16 $28 $0 +1%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Gujarat Titans - Toss May 16 $15 $0 +0%
Will Trump praise Zohran Mamdani by May 31, 2026? May 13 $0 $0 -100%
Spread: Club Independiente Petrolero (-1.5) May 10 $39 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 81,200 on May 9, 5PM ET? May 10 $5 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
T20 World Cup Sub Regional Americas Qualifier: Bermuda vs Bahamas SELL Bahamas 10¢ $2 1h
T20 World Cup Sub Regional Americas Qualifier: Bermuda vs Bahamas BUY Bahamas 14¢ $3 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 100¢ $202 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 99¢ $200 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Scotland - Who wins the toss? BUY Scotland 52¢ $88 25h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi BUY Yes 100¢ $29 28h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Nigeria BUY Nigeria 100¢ $905 31h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Nigeria BUY Nigeria 100¢ $56 32h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Nigeria - Who wins the toss? BUY Nigeria 100¢ $29 32h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Nigeria - Completed match? BUY Yes 100¢ $465 32h
o1 FDV above $1B one day after launch? BUY No 100¢ $2,452 2d
Will Spencer Pratt concede by June 15? SELL Yes $0 3d
Will Spencer Pratt concede by June 15? BUY Yes $0 3d
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Malawi vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi BUY Yes 100¢ $28 3d
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Brazil BUY Brazil 100¢ $2,440 3d
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Brazil BUY Brazil 100¢ $10 3d
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Brazil SELL Rwanda 36¢ $32 3d
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Brazil SELL Rwanda 50¢ $8 3d
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Brazil SELL Rwanda 50¢ $1 3d
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Brazil SELL Rwanda 50¢ $1 3d
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Brazil SELL Rwanda 50¢ $7 3d
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Brazil SELL Rwanda 50¢ $7 3d
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Brazil SELL Rwanda 50¢ $6 3d
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Brazil SELL Rwanda 50¢ $6 3d
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Brazil SELL Rwanda 50¢ $21 3d
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Brazil BUY Rwanda $2 3d
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Brazil BUY Rwanda $2 3d
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Brazil BUY Rwanda $2 3d
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Brazil BUY Rwanda $1 3d
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Brazil BUY Rwanda $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 437 history records