Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T23:31:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4E 0x4e56…c99d world 35 markets active 2h ago coverage 107d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$190 (-50%) realized −$176 · open −$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -55% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -60% what you keep after slip
Net edge-60%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate24%7W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$83now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$21
7 days+$21
14 days+$21
30 days+$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 45% −$167
other 32% +$20
crypto 12% −$19
finance 8% −$22
politics 3% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-59.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +47.8% +33.7% 100% 100% +33.7%
≤30d 1 +47.8% +33.7% 100% 100% +33.7%
≤90d 1 +47.8% +33.7% 100% 100% +33.7%
all 29 -55.2% -59.5% 24% 21% -68.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -59.5% 21% -68.1%
10% -63.3% 17% -71.1%
15% -66.9% 14% -73.9%
20% -70.1% 10% -76.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 85% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +48% too few recent
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -55% · $-wt -65% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -70% → late -41% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$10 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.16 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

107d coverage
Net worth$83
Realized−$176
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses7 / 22
Open positions6
Markets (closed)29 / 35
History coverage107d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 41¢ 42¢ $64 $65 +$1 (+1%)
Nechirvan Barzani out as Kurdistan Regional Government President? Yes 8¢ 5¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-41%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+14%)
Will Israel reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026? Yes 15¢ 5¢ $8 $3 −$5 (-65%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Yes 18¢ 10¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-47%)
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 17¢ 3¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-81%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $44 +$21 +48%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Mar 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? Mar 18 $5 −$5 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 9? Mar 18 $2 +$8 +376%
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? Mar 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Will UK strike Iran by March 31? Mar 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Jordan strike Iran by March 31? Mar 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Germany strike Iran by March 31? Mar 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Mar 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Mar 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Mar 09 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Mar 09 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Mar 09 $1 +$1 +57%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March? Mar 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? Mar 09 $10 −$10 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Mar 09 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Mar 09 $1 $0 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Mar 09 $1 −$1 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? Mar 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $85-$90 in March? Mar 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30? Mar 08 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Reza Pahlavi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Mar 07 $10 −$5 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Mar 07 $8 −$8 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Mar 07 $5 +$3 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Mar 07 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Mar 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Mar 07 $50 −$50 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 41¢ $65 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $44 14h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? BUY Yes 26¢ $4 96d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 96d
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? BUY Yes 23¢ $6 105d
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 105d
Will UK strike Iran by March 31? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 105d
Will Jordan strike Iran by March 31? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 105d
Will Germany strike Iran by March 31? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 105d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 105d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 9? BUY Up 21¢ $2 105d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $4 105d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $5 105d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET SELL Down 84¢ $5 105d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $5 105d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET SELL Up 14¢ $2 105d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 105d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 105d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 105d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 105d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? BUY Yes 22¢ $50 105d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Up 23¢ $1 105d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $1 105d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 105d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 105d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 105d
Will Israel reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $8 106d
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $85-$90 in March? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 106d
Nechirvan Barzani out as Kurdistan Regional Government President? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 106d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $20 106d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $83.15 · official $83.15 (match) · 45 history records