Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:16:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4E 0x4e53…1341 crypto 20 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$7 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate47%8W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$145per market
Trades / day48.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$224now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% −$454
other 4% +$32
sports 4% −$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +1.5% -8.2% 47% 41% -25.3%
≤30d 17 +1.5% -8.2% 47% 41% -25.3%
≤90d 17 +1.5% -8.2% 47% 41% -25.3%
all 17 +1.5% -8.2% 47% 41% -25.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover48.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.2% 41% -25.3%
10% ← realistic here -16.9% 41% -32.4%
15% -25.0% 41% -39.0%
20% -32.3% 41% -44.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 49% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late +19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$119 vs −$156 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$224
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses8 / 9
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)17 / 20
History coverage1d
Avg bet$145
Trades / day48.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 52¢ 76¢ $100 $147 +$47 (+47%)
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 20¢ $100 $72 −$28 (-28%)
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Yes 20¢ 4¢ $20 $4 −$16 (-78%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 18 $196 −$186 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 18 $103 +$59 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 18 $209 −$200 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 18 $84 +$192 +228%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 18 $145 +$155 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 18 $21 +$59 +280%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 18 $80 −$77 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 18 $106 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 18 $421 −$400 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 18 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 18 $428 +$274 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 18 $242 −$230 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 18 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 18 $114 +$90 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 18 $109 +$118 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 18 $14 −$13 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 18 $200 +$5 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $106 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $89 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $103 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $106 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $104 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $84 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $104 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $41 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $21 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $80 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $106 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $64 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $149 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $208 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $109 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $72 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $137 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $104 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $223.84 · official $224.70 (match) · 56 history records