Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:35:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
4E 0x4e52…f6d5 crypto 69 markets active 0h ago coverage 146d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$859 (-11%) realized −$37 · open −$822
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate31%19W / 42L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$116per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$1,470now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$63
14 days+$119
30 days−$143
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$806
crypto 27% −$399
politics 16% +$63
world 4% +$160
tech 3% −$2
sports 2% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-31.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +30.9% +18.4% 50% 50% +18.9%
≤30d 11 -16.9% -24.8% 45% 27% -16.0%
≤90d 24 -52.2% -56.8% 29% 21% -27.2%
all 61 -24.4% -31.6% 31% 28% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.6% 28% -12.2%
10% -38.2% 23% -20.6%
15% -44.1% 21% -28.3%
20% -49.6% 20% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late -63% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$86 vs −$44 · ×1.96 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

146d coverage
Net worth$1,470
Realized−$37
Unrealized−$822
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses19 / 42
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions8
Markets (closed)61 / 69
History coverage146d
Avg bet$116
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 61 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1,137 $368 −$769 (-68%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $200 $294 +$94 (+47%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 10¢ $200 $231 +$31 (+16%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $200 $155 −$45 (-23%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $171 $148 −$22 (-13%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $200 $118 −$82 (-41%)
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $84 $81 −$3 (-4%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $99 $74 −$25 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $99 $0 +0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $102 +$63 +62%
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $600B by December 31? Jun 06 $203 −$2 -1%
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31? Jun 06 $203 +$13 +6%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 06 $501 +$145 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 04 $105 −$100 -95%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $75 −$75 -100%
Will Donald Trump not announce a next United States Attorney General b May 26 $207 −$207 -100%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? May 19 $103 +$18 +18%
No one announced as next James Bond? May 19 $202 −$5 -2%
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? May 19 $205 +$7 +4%
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? May 15 $509 +$91 +18%
Will Reform UK win at least 1600 council seat elections in the 2026 Un May 08 $499 +$70 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Mar 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in March? Mar 23 $644 −$644 -100%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 16, 2026 (ET)? Mar 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 22, 2026 (ET)? Mar 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 8, 2026 (ET)? Mar 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 12, 2026 (ET)? Mar 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 18, 2026 (ET)? Mar 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 17, 2026 (ET)? Mar 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 9, 2026 (ET)? Mar 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 20, 2026 (ET)? Mar 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 7, 2026 (ET)? Mar 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 21, 2026 (ET)? Mar 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 11, 2026 (ET)? Mar 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 15, 2026 (ET)? Mar 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 14, 2026 (ET)? Mar 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 19, 2026 (ET)? Mar 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 10, 2026 (ET)? Mar 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 13, 2026 (ET)? Mar 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? Mar 02 $155 −$155 -100%
Starmer out by February 28, 2026? Mar 02 $100 −$100 -100%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 28 $144 +$320 +223%
Will Trump say "Biden" 10+ times during the 2026 State of the Union ad Feb 27 $100 +$55 +55%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 5, 12PM ET Feb 05 $40 −$24 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 12PM ET Feb 05 $11 −$11 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 5, 12PM ET Feb 05 $40 −$30 -75%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 5, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Feb 05 $20 −$20 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 5, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Feb 05 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Feb 05 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Feb 05 $376 +$428 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Feb 05 $100 −$95 -94%
Will Solana dip to $80 in February? Feb 05 $100 +$92 +92%
Will Solana dip to $90 in February? Feb 04 $100 +$43 +43%
Will Solana dip to $100 in January? Jan 31 $70 −$6 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jan 31 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jan 31 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 29, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jan 31 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Solana dip to $110 in January? Jan 31 $80 +$89 +111%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 36¢ $124 18m
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $133 1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 18¢ $1 9h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 18¢ $15 9h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 18¢ $19 9h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 18¢ $18 9h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 18¢ $4 9h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 18¢ $27 9h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 18¢ $15 9h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 18¢ $96 10h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 10h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 10h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $165 4d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1,064 10d
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $600B by December 31? SELL No 78¢ $201 10d
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31? SELL Yes 65¢ $216 10d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 83¢ $646 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $105 12d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 63¢ $501 17d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 15¢ $75 17d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $102 19d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $102 19d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $107 19d
Will Donald Trump not announce a next United States Attorney General b BUY Yes 69¢ $83 21d
Will Donald Trump not announce a next United States Attorney General b BUY Yes 69¢ $20 21d
Will Donald Trump not announce a next United States Attorney General b BUY Yes 69¢ $15 21d
Will Donald Trump not announce a next United States Attorney General b BUY Yes 69¢ $15 21d
Will Donald Trump not announce a next United States Attorney General b BUY Yes 69¢ $5 21d
Will Donald Trump not announce a next United States Attorney General b BUY Yes 69¢ $14 21d
Will Donald Trump not announce a next United States Attorney General b BUY Yes 69¢ $1 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,469.53 · official $1,677.53 · 203 history records