Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T03:51:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

4E 0x4e51…dd4f other 30 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover

Total PnL −$9 (-2%) realized +$76 · open −$85

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +116% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +80% what you keep after slip

Net edge+80%after slip

Net WR18%break-even

Win rate18%2W / 9L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$13per market

Trades / day18.3pace

Fees−$3est.

Kalshi-fit50%portable

Net worth$64now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +18%

net ROI/market (all)+95.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	11	+116.0%	+95.4%	18%	18%	-48.0%
≤30d	11	+116.0%	+95.4%	18%	18%	-48.0%
≤90d	11	+116.0%	+95.4%	18%	18%	-48.0%
all	11	+116.0%	+95.4%	18%	18%	-48.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover18.3 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+95.4%	18%	-48.0%
10%	+76.7%	18%	-52.9%
15%	+59.6%	18%	-57.5%
20%	+44.0%	18%	-61.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 61% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -42% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +116% · $-wt -42% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$15 vs −$7 · ×1.97 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×0.44 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage

Net worth$64

Realized+$76

Unrealized−$85

Win rate (resolved)18%

Wins / losses2 / 9

Est. fees paid−$3

Open positions4

Markets (closed)11 / 30

History coverage2d

Avg bet$13

Trades / day18.3

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 4 History 11 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Julián Álvarez score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	77¢	75¢	$39	$38	−$1 (-2%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27?	Yes	27¢	6¢	$97	$20	−$77 (-80%)
World Cup: Most Player Goals Record Broken?	Yes	9¢	5¢	$10	$6	−$4 (-42%)
Exact Score: Algeria 1 - 0 Austria?	Yes	10¢	0¢	$2	$0	−$2 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Exact Score: Croatia 2 - 1 Ghana?	Jun 27	$2	+$18	+873%
Exact Score: Croatia 2 - 2 Ghana?	Jun 27	$2	−$2	-97%
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) AND Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5	Jun 26	$10	−$1	-7%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 26	$10	−$1	-5%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27?	Jun 26	$28	−$28	-99%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 26	$10	−$10	-98%
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 France?	Jun 26	$2	−$2	-97%
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 1 France?	Jun 26	$2	−$2	-97%
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 1 France?	Jun 26	$2	−$2	-97%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 26	$20	−$20	-98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 26	$1	+$11	+1115%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	27¢	$99	2h
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? AND Will Portugal win on 2	BUY	15¢	$20	3h
Exact Score: Croatia 2 - 1 Ghana?	SELL Yes	100¢	$20	4h
Will Julián Álvarez score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	77¢	$39	12h
World Cup: Most Player Goals Record Broken?	BUY Yes	9¢	$10	12h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score AND DR Congo vs. Uzbekist	BUY	21¢	$10	12h
Exact Score: Algeria 1 - 0 Austria?	BUY Yes	10¢	$2	12h
Exact Score: Croatia 2 - 2 Ghana?	BUY Yes	4¢	$2	12h
Exact Score: Croatia 2 - 1 Ghana?	BUY Yes	10¢	$2	12h
Spread: England (-2.5) AND Panama vs. England: Both Teams to Score AND	BUY	8¢	$15	12h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 AND Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 1.5	BUY	27¢	$10	12h
Spread: England (-2.5) AND Spread: Croatia (-1.5) AND Will Algeria vs.	BUY	11¢	$5	13h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? AND Will Eng	BUY	13¢	$5	13h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) AND Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 8.5 Total Corne	BUY	15¢	$10	15h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27?	BUY	30¢	$20	19h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 AND Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5	BUY	20¢	$9	37h
Spread: France (-1.5) AND Spread: Senegal (-1.5)	BUY	40¢	$9	37h
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) AND Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5	SELL	33¢	$9	37h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-26?	SELL	8¢	$9	37h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	52¢	$4	38h
Spread: France (-1.5) AND Senegal vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score AND Wi	BUY	7¢	$5	38h
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) AND Spread: Belgium (-2.5) AND Will Spain win o	BUY	21¢	$10	38h
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) AND Spread: Spain (-1.5)	BUY	6¢	$5	38h
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) AND Spread: Norway (-1.5)	BUY	2¢	$5	41h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26?	BUY	1¢	$1	41h
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) AND Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5	BUY	34¢	$10	43h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	38¢	$10	44h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	52¢	$24	44h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-26?	BUY	8¢	$10	44h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 France?	BUY Yes	12¢	$2	46h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $63.70 · official $80.61 · 35 history records