Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T20:29:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
4E 0x4e51…92bf other 75 markets active 2h ago coverage 533d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$976 (-11%) realized −$906 · open −$70
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate22%15W / 53L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$117per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$78est.
Kalshi-fit49%portable
Net worth$637now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$84
7 days−$136
14 days−$113
30 days+$241
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$543
sports 39% −$474
politics 5% −$258
world 4% −$31
crypto 2% +$12
culture 2% −$168
tech 1% +$143
finance 1% +$234
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-40.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -65.5% -68.8% 14% 14% -22.0%
≤30d 19 -43.1% -48.5% 32% 32% +2.8%
≤90d 60 -36.2% -42.3% 18% 18% -21.1%
all 68 -33.7% -40.0% 22% 22% -19.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -40.0% 22% -19.3%
10% -45.7% 16% -27.0%
15% -51.0% 15% -34.1%
20% -55.8% 13% -40.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -34% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -59% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$160 vs −$64 · ×2.48 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

533d coverage
Net worth$637
Realized−$906
Unrealized−$70
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses15 / 53
Est. fees paid−$78
Open positions7
Markets (closed)68 / 75
History coverage533d
Avg bet$117
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit49%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 68 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $450 $436 −$14 (-3%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $100 $106 +$6 (+6%)
Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $50 $46 −$4 (-8%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $66 $35 −$31 (-46%)
Will a player representing Netherlands be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 3¢ $21 $9 −$12 (-58%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $3 −$7 (-70%)
Will Cody Gakpo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $10 $2 −$8 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 30 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 26 $535 +$183 +34%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $93 −$61 -66%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $142 −$38 -27%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $36 −$35 -98%
Uzbekistan to score first vs. Portugal? Jun 23 $62 −$60 -98%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $26 −$25 -97%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $25 −$1 -3%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $143 +$24 +16%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $661 −$548 -83%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $12 −$12 -97%
Will no country replace Iran in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $208 −$173 -83%
Will Magnus Carlsen win Norway Chess 2026? Jun 04 $221 −$56 -25%
Will Vincent Keymer win Norway Chess 2026? Jun 02 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Wesley So win Norway Chess 2026? May 31 $113 −$113 -100%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 31 $255 +$31 +12%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 31 $302 +$232 +77%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $1,010 +$696 +69%
Will Crystal Palace win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa Conference League? May 28 $606 +$310 +51%
Will UAE replace Iran in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? May 12 $35 +$80 +227%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 08 $34 −$33 -98%
Will Manchester United finish in 3rd place in the 2025-26 English Prem May 02 $46 −$45 -98%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 02 $204 −$200 -98%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 02 $300 −$198 -66%
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Illinois win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Apr 07 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Anish Giri win on 2026-04-05 at FIDE Candidates 2026 Open? Apr 07 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Hikaru Nakamura win on 2026-04-07 at FIDE Candidates 2026 Open? Apr 07 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Sporting CP reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal? Apr 07 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Andrey Esipenko win on 2026-04-05 at FIDE Candidates 2026 Open? Apr 05 $40 −$39 -98%
Will Praggnanandhaa R vs. Fabiano Caruana end in a draw? Apr 05 $100 −$98 -98%
Will Matthias Bluebaum win on 2026-04-05 at FIDE Candidates 2026 Open? Apr 05 $50 −$49 -98%
Will Anish Giri win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? Apr 03 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Praggnanandhaa R win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? Apr 03 $125 −$125 -100%
Will Fabiano Caruana win on 2026-04-03 at FIDE Candidates 2026 Open? Apr 03 $65 −$65 -100%
Will Anish Giri win on 2026-04-03 at FIDE Candidates 2026 Open? Apr 03 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Matthias Bluebaum win on 2026-04-03 at FIDE Candidates 2026 Open? Apr 03 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Kateryna Lagno win on 2026-04-03 at FIDE Candidates 2026 Women? Apr 03 $30 +$73 +243%
Will Hikaru Nakamura vs. Javokhir Sindarov end in a draw? Apr 03 $60 +$103 +172%
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? Apr 02 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? Apr 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Apr 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Connecticut win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Apr 02 $50 −$50 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 2? Apr 02 $12 −$12 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 2? Apr 02 $45 +$246 +546%
Will Trump say "April Fool" or "April Fool's" during Address to the Na Apr 02 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Apr 02 $168 −$168 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY Yes 6¢ $51 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $463 1h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $103 1h
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu SELL No 95¢ $656 1h
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu SELL No 96¢ $10 1h
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu SELL No 96¢ $52 1h
Will a player representing Netherlands be the top goalscorer at the 20 BUY Yes 7¢ $21 21h
Will Cody Gakpo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 21h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $31 21h
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No 77¢ $431 35h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $431 35h
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No 52¢ $104 45h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $104 45h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 15¢ $36 3d
Uzbekistan to score first vs. Portugal? BUY Yes 13¢ $62 3d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 5¢ $26 3d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5 BUY Over 40¢ $102 3d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $54 8d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $24 10d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $142 12d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $27 12d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $167 12d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $449 15d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 19¢ $103 15d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $62 15d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $12 15d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $31 15d
Will no country replace Iran in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 1¢ $35 15d
Will no country replace Iran in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 2¢ $14 20d
Will Magnus Carlsen win Norway Chess 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $3 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $637.07 · official $637.07 (match) · 291 history records