Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T18:54:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4E 0x4e4f…1c8c other 18 markets active 2h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$133 (-33%) realized −$133 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate54%7W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit11%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$58
7 days−$27
14 days−$106
30 days−$106
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 97% −$97
sports 3% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-18.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +6.7% -3.5% 64% 55% -17.1%
≤30d 13 -9.3% -18.0% 54% 46% -33.5%
≤90d 13 -9.3% -18.0% 54% 46% -33.5%
all 13 -9.3% -18.0% 54% 46% -33.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.0% 46% -33.5%
10% -25.8% 31% -39.9%
15% -33.0% 23% -45.7%
20% -39.5% 15% -51.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 57% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -27% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -60% → late +34% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$29 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$133
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses7 / 6
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)13 / 18
History coverage8d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit11%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Francisco Conceição: 1+ assists Yes 16¢ 21¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+31%)
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Yes 22¢ 22¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Luis Díaz: 1+ assists Yes 25¢ 22¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-10%)
Bruno Fernandes: 2+ assists Yes 13¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
João Félix: 1+ assists Yes 26¢ 20¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals Jun 23 $5 +$12 +238%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $100 +$15 +15%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -95%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $10 +$13 +123%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $50 +$5 +10%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $52 +$24 +46%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1 $0 +12%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1 $0 +24%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $81 −$80 -99%
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $80 −$76 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 99¢ $116 1h
João Félix: 1+ assists BUY Yes 26¢ $1 2h
Bruno Fernandes: 2+ assists BUY Yes 13¢ $1 2h
Luis Díaz: 1+ assists BUY Yes 25¢ $1 4h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $100 4h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals BUY Yes 29¢ $5 4h
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY Yes 22¢ $1 4h
Francisco Conceição: 1+ assists BUY Yes 16¢ $1 5h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 13h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 89¢ $23 14h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 52¢ $10 14h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 14h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 39¢ $10 14h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $50 32h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 32h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 37h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 89¢ $1 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 80¢ $1 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $81 6d
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists BUY Yes 35¢ $5 6d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $4 8d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 5¢ $4 8d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $80 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.91 · official $4.91 (match) · 29 history records