Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:28:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
4E 0x4e4a…1877 other 128 markets active 7d ago coverage 120d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$31 (-0%) realized −$31 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate5%7W / 121L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$323per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% −$18
politics 33% −$15
sports 11% +$5
economics 6% −$2
crypto 3% −$2
tech 3% −$1
world 2% −$1
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 6 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 99 -0.1% -9.6% 2% 0% -9.6%
all 128 -0.9% -10.3% 5% 4% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 4% -9.6%
10% -18.9% 2% -18.2%
15% -26.7% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.9% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$0 · ×5.88 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

120d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$31
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses7 / 121
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)128 / 128
History coverage120d
Avg bet$323
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 128 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Jun 10 $26 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $49 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $496 −$1 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $431 −$1 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 21 $497 −$1 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 19 $217 $0 -0%
Will Juan Daniel Oviedo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 16 $230 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $286 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? May 07 $271 $0 -0%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $254 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $677 −$1 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 04 $477 −$1 -0%
Will Germán Vargas Lleras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election May 04 $544 −$1 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 03 $294 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $437 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $478 −$1 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 02 $559 −$1 -0%
Will Alex Michelsen win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 02 $214 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 02 $245 −$1 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 02 $856 −$1 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 01 $268 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 30 $215 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 30 $207 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 29 $216 $0 -0%
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 29 $541 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 27 $997 −$1 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 27 $256 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 26 $296 $0 -0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 26 $302 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $454 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 24 $302 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 24 $228 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 24 $291 $0 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 22 $259 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $482 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $276 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 20 $262 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $236 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $286 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $466 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 18 $244 $0 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $506 −$2 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Apr 17 $277 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $259 $0 -0%
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 16 $547 −$1 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 16 $300 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 16 $214 $0 -0%
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 15 $262 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $273 $0 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 14 $536 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem SELL No 100¢ $26 6d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem BUY No 100¢ $26 8d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $49 12d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $49 17d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $218 17d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $218 21d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $225 23d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $225 25d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $254 26d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $254 27d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $217 28d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $217 29d
Will Juan Daniel Oviedo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $230 31d
Will Juan Daniel Oviedo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $230 40d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $286 40d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $286 40d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $271 41d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $271 41d
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 99¢ $254 41d
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $254 42d
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $208 42d
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $208 43d
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $211 43d
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 100¢ $211 44d
Will Germán Vargas Lleras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election SELL No 100¢ $268 44d
Will Germán Vargas Lleras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election BUY No 100¢ $268 44d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $294 44d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $294 44d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $224 44d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $224 45d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 392 history records