Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T04:11:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
4E 0x4e4a…c897 sports 55 markets active 2h ago coverage 83d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$611 (+30%) realized +$607 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%17W / 34L
Drawdown86%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$26est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$54now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$101
7 days+$492
14 days+$512
30 days+$335
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 60% +$541
other 22% +$117
crypto 16% +$50
tech 3% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +38.9% +25.7% 56% 56% +61.3%
≤30d 46 -15.0% -23.1% 30% 30% +7.7%
≤90d 51 -5.2% -14.2% 33% 33% +22.0%
all 51 -5.2% -14.2% 33% 33% +22.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.2% 33% +22.0%
10% -22.4% 31% +10.3%
15% -29.9% 27% -0.3%
20% -36.8% 27% -10.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +35% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +35% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$100 vs −$31 · ×3.26 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.63 per $1 lost it wins $1.63
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

83d coverage
Net worth$54
Realized+$607
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses17 / 34
Est. fees paid−$26
Open positions1
Markets (closed)51 / 55
History coverage83d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown86%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $50 $54 +$4 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 19 $26 +$47 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 19 $26 +$5 +19%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $101 +$29 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 18 $26 +$9 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 18 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$21 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$14 +55%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $102 +$486 +474%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 14 $41 −$40 -98%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 14 $104 −$100 -96%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $10 +$28 +276%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $51 +$88 +172%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 12 $52 −$50 -97%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -94%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 11 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 08 $79 −$2 -2%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $132 +$270 +204%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 06 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 06 $76 −$76 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $20 +$38 +188%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 1-7? Jun 05 $32 +$20 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 04 $5 −$5 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Gilbert Burns vs. Mike Malott (Welterweight, Main Car Jun 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights Jun 04 $23 −$23 -100%
UFC 327: Johnny Walker vs. Dominick Reyes (Light Heavyweight, Main Car Jun 04 $10 −$10 -100%
MVP Fight Night: Nate Diaz vs. Mike Perry Jun 04 $153 −$153 -100%
Flames vs. Kraken Jun 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Ludvig Aberg win the 2026 Masters tournament? Jun 04 $25 −$25 -100%
MVP Fight Night: Francis Ngannou vs. Philipe Lins Jun 04 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 04 $10 −$3 -33%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 04 $51 −$51 -100%
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) Jun 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes Jun 04 $106 −$106 -100%
AHL: Colorado Eagles vs. Calgary Wranglers Jun 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Tommy Fleetwood win the 2026 Masters tournament? Jun 04 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 Masters tournament? Jun 04 $25 −$25 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $51 +$84 +165%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? May 25 $102 +$220 +215%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET May 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET May 16 $10 −$10 -100%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $77 +$318 +414%
UFC 328: Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main C May 10 $20 +$14 +70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET SELL Up 86¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET SELL Up 49¢ $35 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $26 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $26 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $26 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET SELL Down 82¢ $40 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 39h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06- BUY 35¢ $10 3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 77¢ $101 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Michael Chandler 23¢ $10 4d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 48¢ $41 4d
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $51 4d
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY No 26¢ $10 4d
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 24¢ $51 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY 7¢ $10 4d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 4d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $5 4d
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? AND Will Brazil vs. Morocco end BUY 7¢ $10 5d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $51 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? BUY Yes 16¢ $52 7d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $10 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 12? BUY No 1¢ $5 7d
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Seattle Mariners 14¢ $5 7d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Golden Knights 42¢ $102 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $27 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET SELL Up 33¢ $24 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $26 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET SELL Up 31¢ $46 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53.95 · official $63.95 · 136 history records