Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T19:15:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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4E 0x4e4a…4178 crypto 1623 markets active 0h ago coverage 46d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 46d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$6,998 (+23%) realized +$6,965 · open +$33
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate50%824W / 811L
Drawdown37%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day24.4pace
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 46d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 85% +$345
other 15% +$202
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 800 -1.6% -11.0% 8% 0% -8.3%
≤30d 1031 +1.5% -8.2% 25% 11% -6.4%
≤90d 1635 +1.1% -8.5% 50% 9% -8.2%
all 1635 +1.1% -8.5% 50% 9% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.5% 9% -8.2%
10% ← realistic here -17.3% 6% -17.0%
15% -25.3% 4% -25.0%
20% -32.6% 3% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
79% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
0.7 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$13 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.41 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

46d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized+$6,965
Unrealized+$33
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses824 / 811
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1635 / 1623
History coverage46d ⚠
Avg bet$19
Trades / day24.4
Drawdown37%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1635 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Up 0¢ 52¢ $0 $33 +$33 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 73 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Thunder vs. Mavericks: 1H O/U 119.5 Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 20 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: ReThink vs Imperial Academy - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 20 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 20 $0 −$1 -308%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 20, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 20 $3 $0 +0%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 20, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 20 $4 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 20 $3 $0 +0%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 20, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 20 $3 $0 +0%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 20, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 20 $3 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 20 $3 $0 +0%
BNB Up or Down - June 20, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 20 $3 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 20 $3 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 20 $51 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 20 $3 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 20 $47 $0 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 20, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 20 $3 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 20 $3 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 20 $3 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 20 $3 $0 +0%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 20, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 20 $2 $0 +0%
BNB Up or Down - June 20, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 20 $4 $0 +0%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 20 $4 $0 +0%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 20 $68 +$1 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 20 $4 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 20 $61 +$4 +7%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 20 $3 $0 +0%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 20 $57 +$1 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 20 $53 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 20 $3 $0 +0%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 20, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 20 $3 $0 +0%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 20 $3 $0 +0%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 20 $50 +$1 +2%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 20 $3 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 20 $3 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 20 $3 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 20 $3 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 20 $3 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 20 $2 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 20 $39 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $62 0m
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $51 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $47 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $68 3h
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $61 3h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $54 3h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $53 3h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $50 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $39 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $34 6h
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $28 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $67 17h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $80 18h
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $71 18h
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $71 19h
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $53 22h
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $62 27h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 19, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $53 31h
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $51 33h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 19, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $48 33h
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $41 35h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $75 36h
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $62 37h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 19, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $58 37h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 19, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $82 38h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 18, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $80 39h
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $68 40h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $62 40h
BNB Up or Down - June 18, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $56 42h
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $45 44h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.08 · official $31.50 · 3500 history records