Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T22:45:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4E
0x4e49…469c
crypto · 69 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$61 -14%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$61 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$20
Realized−$61
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses34 / 34
Open positions1
Markets (closed)68 / 69
History coverage129d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%
Chart Positions 1 History 68 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11
7 days+$11
14 days+$11
30 days+$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Down 74¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Down 54¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$11 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Mar 28 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Mar 28 $15 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Mar 28 $5 +$4 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Mar 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Mar 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Mar 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Mar 28 $4 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Mar 28 $2 −$1 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Mar 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Mar 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Mar 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Mar 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Mar 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Mar 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Mar 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Mar 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Mar 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Mar 28 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Mar 28 $8 +$4 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Mar 28 $3 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Mar 28 $5 +$4 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Mar 28 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Mar 28 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Mar 28 $1 $0 +23%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Mar 26 $37 −$8 -21%
US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026? Feb 22 $37 $0 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 21 $7 $0 +2%
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? Feb 21 $58 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Feb 20 $5 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Feb 20 $1 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Feb 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Feb 18 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Feb 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Feb 18 $3 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Feb 18 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Feb 18 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Feb 17 $1 +$1 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Feb 16 $2 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Feb 16 $2 −$1 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Feb 16 $2 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Feb 16 $3 −$1 -49%
Valorant: MIBR vs NRG (BO5) - VCT Americas Kickoff Playoffs Feb 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Feb 16 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Feb 16 $2 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Feb 16 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Feb 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Feb 16 $2 −$1 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Feb 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Feb 16 $2 −$1 -26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 37% −$7
crypto 34% −$28
other 29% −$25
sports 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $5 58m
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $5 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 9h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $10 77d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 77d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET SELL Down 46¢ $14 77d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $10 77d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET SELL Down 43¢ $9 77d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $5 77d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $7 77d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $5 77d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $4 77d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $3 77d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET SELL Up 82¢ $8 77d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 77d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 77d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET SELL Up 56¢ $6 77d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 77d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $2 77d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET SELL Up 74¢ $2 77d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 77d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 77d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 77d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $3 77d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $1 77d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 77d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $1 77d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 77d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1 77d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-32.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +105.1% +85.6% 100% 100% +85.6%
≤30d 1 +105.1% +85.6% 100% 100% +85.6%
≤90d 26 -35.2% -41.4% 35% 35% -18.2%
all 68 -25.3% -32.4% 50% 35% -22.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.4% 35% -22.8%
10% -38.9% 28% -30.2%
15% -44.8% 19% -37.0%
20% -50.2% 10% -43.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.83 · official $19.83 (match) · 186 history records