Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T19:00:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
4E 0x4e48…c392 other 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 72d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$574 (+23%) realized +$512 · open +$62
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR80%break-even
Win rate80%4W / 1L
Drawdown27%max
Avg bet$312per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$762now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 72d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$117
sports 32% +$553
politics 24% +$188
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +80%
net ROI/market (all)-1.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -6.4% -15.3% 67% 67% +19.0%
≤30d 3 -6.4% -15.3% 67% 67% +19.0%
≤90d 5 +8.5% -1.9% 80% 80% +18.9%
all 5 +8.5% -1.9% 80% 80% +18.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.9% 80% +18.9%
10% -11.2% 60% +7.6%
15% -19.8% 20% -2.8%
20% -27.7% 20% -12.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 73% · top 2 93% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +32% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$191 vs −$200 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.81 per $1 lost it wins $3.81
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$762
Realized+$512
Unrealized+$62
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses4 / 1
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions3
Markets (closed)5 / 8
History coverage72d
Avg bet$312
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown27%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Yes 82¢ 82¢ $300 $302 +$2 (+1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Yes 91¢ 90¢ $300 $298 −$2 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 59¢ 96¢ $100 $162 +$62 (+62%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $201 +$21 +11%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $202 −$200 -99%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 21 $788 +$553 +70%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? May 19 $501 +$158 +32%
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in t Apr 14 $100 +$30 +30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 59¢ $101 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 82¢ $302 24h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $301 24h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $222 24h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 90¢ $201 28h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $101 30h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $101 30h
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 58¢ $788 26d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? BUY Yes 76¢ $501 71d
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in t BUY Yes 77¢ $100 71d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $762.05 · official $762.05 (match) · 13 history records