Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:31:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4E 0x4e48…828f sports 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$35 (+14%) realized −$22 · open +$57
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day7.0pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$307now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$57
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -5.3% -14.3% 0% 0% -14.3%
≤30d 1 -5.3% -14.3% 0% 0% -14.3%
≤90d 1 -5.3% -14.3% 0% 0% -14.3%
all 1 -5.3% -14.3% 0% 0% -14.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.3% 0% -14.3%
10% -22.5% 0% -22.5%
15% -30.0% 0% -30.0%
20% -36.8% 0% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$0 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$307
Realized−$22
Unrealized+$57
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 1
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions5
Markets (closed)1 / 6
History coverage1d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day7.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 1 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
ITF Zhengzhou: Rina Saigo vs Tiana Tian Deng Tiana Tian Deng 57¢ 100¢ $50 $88 +$38 (+75%)
Game Handicap: KT.C (-1.5) vs Dplus KIA Challengers (+1.5) KT Rolster Challengers 33¢ 49¢ $50 $74 +$24 (+48%)
ITF Kayseri: Rethin Pranav Senthil Kumar vs Kaan Isik Kosaner Rethin Pranav Senthil Kumar 56¢ 59¢ $50 $53 +$3 (+5%)
Nottingham Open (Doubles): Chong/Kempen vs Aoyama/Chan Aoyama/Chan 57¢ 52¢ $50 $46 −$4 (-8%)
ITF Zhengzhou: Varvara Panshina vs Yuyao Li Varvara Panshina 94¢ 86¢ $50 $46 −$4 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 $0 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Game Handicap: KT.C (-1.5) vs Dplus KIA Challengers (+1.5) BUY KT Rolster Challengers 33¢ $51 1h
ITF Zhengzhou: Varvara Panshina vs Yuyao Li BUY Varvara Panshina 94¢ $50 1h
ITF Zhengzhou: Rina Saigo vs Tiana Tian Deng BUY Tiana Tian Deng 57¢ $51 2h
ITF Kayseri: Rethin Pranav Senthil Kumar vs Kaan Isik Kosaner BUY Rethin Pranav Senthil Kumar 56¢ $51 3h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 47¢ $1 10h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 10h
Nottingham Open (Doubles): Chong/Kempen vs Aoyama/Chan BUY Aoyama/Chan 57¢ $51 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $306.66 · official $306.01 (match) · 7 history records