Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:58:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4E 0x4e45…b7a4 other 22 markets active 1h ago coverage 83d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$217 (-28%) realized −$215 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -68% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -71% what you keep after slip
Net edge-71%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%4W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit41%portable
Net worth$278now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$217
7 days−$273
14 days−$273
30 days−$307
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 75% −$252
sports 25% −$57
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-71.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -74.9% -77.3% 18% 18% -78.2%
≤30d 16 -68.0% -71.1% 25% 25% -66.7%
≤90d 16 -68.0% -71.1% 25% 25% -66.7%
all 16 -68.0% -71.1% 25% 25% -66.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -71.1% 25% -66.7%
10% -73.8% 19% -69.9%
15% -76.4% 12% -72.8%
20% -78.7% 0% -75.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 66% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -63% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -68% · $-wt -63% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -53% → late -83% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$29 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.11 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

83d coverage
Net worth$278
Realized−$215
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses4 / 12
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions6
Markets (closed)16 / 22
History coverage83d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit41%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 60¢ 60¢ $140 $140 +$0 (+0%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $65 $64 −$1 (-1%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-3%)
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-2%)
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 17 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 17 $42 −$42 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 17 $74 −$74 -100%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $26 +$10 +38%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 15 $74 −$70 -94%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $37 +$14 +38%
Arizona Wildcats vs. Michigan Wolverines May 19 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Arizona win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? May 19 $9 −$9 -100%
Michigan State Spartans vs. Connecticut Huskies May 19 $27 +$3 +12%
Spread: Illinois Fighting Illini (-1.5) May 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? May 19 $50 +$12 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $16 1h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $21 1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 18¢ $32 1h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $11 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $69 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $26 38h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $16 2d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $16 2d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $16 2d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 28¢ $74 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 67¢ $21 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $74 3d
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 63¢ $95 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $26 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $16 5d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 24¢ $11 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $32 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $37 6d
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 56¢ $53 7d
Arizona Wildcats vs. Michigan Wolverines BUY Arizona Wildcats 48¢ $19 75d
Will Arizona win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? BUY Yes 33¢ $9 75d
Spread: Illinois Fighting Illini (-1.5) BUY Illinois Fighting Illini 53¢ $20 75d
Michigan State Spartans vs. Connecticut Huskies BUY Michigan State Spartans 21¢ $7 81d
Michigan State Spartans vs. Connecticut Huskies SELL Michigan State Spartans 21¢ $30 81d
Michigan State Spartans vs. Connecticut Huskies BUY Michigan State Spartans 14¢ $20 81d
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? BUY Yes 81¢ $50 82d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $278.16 · official $278.16 (match) · 41 history records