Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T13:54:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4E 0x4e44…6d80 crypto 43 markets active 2h ago coverage 560d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$158 (-6%) realized −$158 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate79%33W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$58per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 45% −$176
crypto 25% +$18
other 20% $0
politics 10% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +3.1% -6.7% 100% 0% -6.7%
≤30d 5 +4.2% -5.7% 100% 0% -5.6%
≤90d 9 +3.5% -6.3% 100% 0% -6.1%
all 42 -0.2% -9.7% 79% 0% -15.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -15.4%
10% -18.3% 0% -23.5%
15% -26.2% 0% -30.8%
20% -33.4% 0% -37.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$22 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

560d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized−$158
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses33 / 9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)42 / 43
History coverage560d
Avg bet$58
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? No 94¢ 93¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 15-21? Jun 22 $30 +$1 +3%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 June 8-14? Jun 15 $39 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 1-7? Jun 08 $36 +$3 +10%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? Jun 02 $18 +$1 +4%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in May? Jun 02 $16 $0 +3%
Will Solana reach $100 in April? May 10 $15 +$1 +4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April? May 10 $18 $0 +2%
Will Solana reach $110 in March? Apr 25 $16 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March? Apr 25 $17 $0 +3%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in February? Mar 26 $16 $0 +1%
Will BNB dip to $500 in February? Mar 26 $16 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January? Feb 26 $15 +$1 +3%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,400 in January? Jan 31 $16 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in December? Jan 25 $15 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 in December? Jan 25 $16 $0 +0%
Celtics vs. 76ers Nov 11 $175 −$175 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $130k in October? Nov 11 $15 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $5000 in October? Nov 11 $26 +$1 +3%
Will Solana dip to $150 in September? Oct 26 $15 $0 +1%
Will Solana dip to $160 in September? Oct 26 $25 +$1 +5%
Will Solana reach $250 in August? Sep 26 $15 +$1 +4%
Will Solana dip to $145 in August? Sep 26 $23 +$1 +3%
Will Ethereum reach $4200 in July? Aug 26 $12 +$1 +10%
Will Ethereum reach $4500 in July? Aug 26 $25 $0 +2%
Will Solana reach $180 in June? Jul 24 $15 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in June? Jul 24 $21 $0 +2%
Will Solana reach $210 in May? Jun 25 $16 +$1 +9%
Will Solana reach $250 in May? Jun 25 $18 $0 +1%
Will Solana reach $210 in April? May 26 $14 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $110k in April? May 26 $19 +$1 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by March 31? Apr 23 $13 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by March 31? Apr 23 $20 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Mar 19 $251 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by February 28, 2025? Mar 19 $17 $0 +2%
Will Pump.fun launch a token in 2024? Jan 06 $15 $0 +0%
Will Bologna win the UEFA Champions League? Dec 21 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Dec 15 $228 $0 -0%
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2025 NBA Finals? Dec 15 $230 $0 -0%
Will the Cowboys win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 15 $236 $0 -0%
Will the Saints win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 15 $232 $0 -0%
West Ham United wins the Premier League? Dec 15 $228 $0 -0%
Wolverhampton Wanderers win the Premier League? Dec 15 $235 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY No 94¢ $31 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 15-21? BUY No 97¢ $30 9d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 June 8-14? BUY No 99¢ $39 15d
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 1-7? BUY No 91¢ $36 21d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in May? BUY No 97¢ $16 33d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? BUY No 95¢ $18 33d
Will Solana reach $100 in April? BUY No 96¢ $15 64d
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April? BUY No 98¢ $18 64d
Will Solana reach $110 in March? BUY No 98¢ $16 94d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March? BUY No 98¢ $17 94d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in February? BUY No 99¢ $16 122d
Will BNB dip to $500 in February? BUY No 98¢ $16 122d
Will Ethereum dip to $2,400 in January? SELL No 98¢ $16 148d
Will Ethereum dip to $2,400 in January? BUY No 97¢ $16 153d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January? BUY No 97¢ $15 153d
Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 in December? BUY No 99¢ $16 183d
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in December? BUY No 99¢ $15 183d
Celtics vs. 76ers BUY Celtics 47¢ $175 229d
Will Ethereum reach $5000 in October? BUY No 97¢ $26 245d
Will Bitcoin reach $130k in October? BUY No 98¢ $15 245d
Will Solana dip to $150 in September? BUY No 99¢ $15 275d
Will Solana dip to $160 in September? BUY No 95¢ $25 275d
Will Solana dip to $145 in August? BUY No 97¢ $23 306d
Will Solana reach $250 in August? BUY No 96¢ $15 306d
Will Ethereum reach $4200 in July? BUY No 91¢ $12 339d
Will Ethereum reach $4500 in July? BUY No 98¢ $25 339d
Will Solana reach $180 in June? BUY No 98¢ $15 367d
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in June? BUY No 98¢ $21 367d
Will Solana reach $250 in May? BUY No 99¢ $18 397d
Will Solana reach $210 in May? BUY No 92¢ $16 397d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.59 · official $30.59 (match) · 91 history records