Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T02:45:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4E 0x4e43…08bd crypto 808 markets active 0h ago coverage 46d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$359 (+1%) realized +$325 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate83%669W / 139L
Drawdown53%max
Avg bet$58per market
Trades / day27.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$136
7 days−$14
14 days+$201
30 days+$382
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$325
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 111 +0.1% -9.4% 98% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 558 +0.7% -8.9% 98% 0% -8.8%
≤90d 808 -2.1% -11.4% 83% 5% -8.9%
all 808 -2.1% -11.4% 83% 5% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.4% 5% -8.9%
10% ← realistic here -19.9% 4% -17.6%
15% -27.6% 3% -25.6%
20% -34.7% 2% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$5 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.49 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

46d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$325
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses669 / 139
Open positions0
Markets (closed)808 / 808
History coverage46d
Avg bet$58
Trades / day27.9
Drawdown53%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 808 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Up 96¢ 0¢ $289 $0 −$289 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 15 $198 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $294 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $294 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 15 $294 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 15 $294 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 15 $294 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $441 +$9 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 15 $294 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 14 $294 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $442 +$8 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $294 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $290 −$289 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 14 $294 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 14 $294 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 14 $294 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 14 $294 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 14 $292 +$8 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 14 $294 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 14 $294 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 14 $442 +$8 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 14 $294 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 14 $294 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 14 $294 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 14 $294 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 14 $441 +$9 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 13 $98 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 13 $98 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 13 $98 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 13 $98 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 12 $167 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 12 $165 +$5 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 12 $167 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 12 $167 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 12 $167 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 12 $167 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 12 $167 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 12 $167 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 12 $167 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 12 $167 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 12 $167 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 12 $167 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 12 $167 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 12 $167 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 12 $167 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 12 $167 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 11 $167 +$3 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $198 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $294 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $294 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $294 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $294 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $294 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $49 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $49 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $49 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $49 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $49 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $49 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $49 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $294 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $294 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $294 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $147 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $294 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $290 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $294 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $294 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $294 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $294 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1951 history records