Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:40:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4E 0x4e43…5ab0 other 33 markets active 1h ago coverage 454d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate58%19W / 14L
Drawdown87%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 42% −$1
other 35% +$2
politics 12% $0
crypto 5% $0
tech 3% $0
weather 3% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -2.4% -11.7% 43% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 9 -1.6% -11.0% 44% 11% -9.5%
≤90d 9 -1.6% -11.0% 44% 11% -9.5%
all 33 +0.2% -9.4% 58% 6% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 6% -9.0%
10% -18.0% 0% -17.7%
15% -25.9% 0% -25.7%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 69% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.36 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

454d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses19 / 14
Open positions0
Markets (closed)33 / 33
History coverage454d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown87%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 33 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 20 $31 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 20 $34 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $18 +$1 +4%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $37 +$1 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 19 $11 −$3 -31%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $5 $0 +8%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $36 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 27 $29 −$3 -12%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 24 $35 +$5 +14%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Jul 06 $5 $0 +0%
Will Nuno Mendes win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 06 $8 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 06 $9 $0 -1%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 06 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 04 $9 $0 -0%
Will Trump impose large tariffs in his first 6 months? Jul 04 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport less than 250,000? Jul 04 $4 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jul 03 $13 $0 -0%
Will Dan Trifu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jul 02 $13 $0 +0%
Will McLaren be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Jul 02 $13 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Jul 02 $11 $0 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? Jul 02 $1 $0 -3%
Will Palmeiras win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jul 01 $12 $0 +0%
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? Jul 01 $13 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy TikTok before July? Jun 27 $11 $0 +4%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 20 $2 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 300–324 times May 23–30? May 31 $1 $0 +1%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Apr 26 $2 $0 +2%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? Apr 18 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $1800 on Apr 18? Apr 17 $11 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 275–299 times April 11–18? Apr 16 $12 $0 +1%
Will Kentucky win the Midwest region of the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Mar 30 $11 +$2 +13%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by March 31? Mar 24 $11 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 51°F or below on March 25? Mar 24 $12 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 74¢ $31 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 74¢ $31 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $18 6h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $16 6h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $34 6h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 26¢ $19 9h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 25¢ $18 10h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 92¢ $34 22h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 90¢ $33 23h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 9¢ $4 28h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 9¢ $3 28h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 9¢ $0 28h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 30h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 30h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 30h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $4 34h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $4 35h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $6 42h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 44h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $20 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $15 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $18 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $17 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 61¢ $26 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 69¢ $29 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $37 26d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $2 26d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 64¢ $20 26d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 64¢ $15 26d
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? SELL No 90¢ $3 348d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 82 history records