Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T15:16:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4E
0x4e42…49ed
world · 166 markets active 21h ago
0.0score
+$4,115 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$5,470 · open −$1,254
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP world specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$113,075
Realized+$5,470
Unrealized−$1,254
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses87 / 46
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$160
Open positions33
Markets (closed)133 / 166
History coverage84d
Avg bet$2,582
Trades / day28.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%
Chart Positions 33 History 133 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5,408
7 days−$7,820
14 days−$3,688
30 days+$3,240
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? No 47¢ 82¢ $7,113 $12,375 +$5,262 (+74%)
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? No 70¢ 88¢ $5,862 $7,414 +$1,552 (+26%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 73¢ 89¢ $5,870 $7,100 +$1,230 (+21%)
Ebola case in the US by June 30? No 74¢ 83¢ $6,177 $6,937 +$760 (+12%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 61¢ 81¢ $4,914 $6,484 +$1,570 (+32%)
Thai Constitutional Court invalidates election? No 93¢ 97¢ $5,624 $5,855 +$231 (+4%)
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? No 76¢ 80¢ $5,294 $5,538 +$244 (+5%)
Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by June 30? No 88¢ 88¢ $5,082 $5,124 +$42 (+1%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 90¢ 97¢ $4,500 $4,848 +$348 (+8%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 60¢ 57¢ $4,778 $4,603 −$175 (-4%)
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? No 77¢ 90¢ $3,859 $4,529 +$670 (+17%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 82¢ 89¢ $4,100 $4,440 +$340 (+8%)
No one announced as next James Bond? Yes 80¢ 86¢ $4,123 $4,385 +$262 (+6%)
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? No 41¢ 44¢ $4,113 $4,350 +$237 (+6%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 73¢ 64¢ $4,390 $3,870 −$520 (-12%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 62¢ 57¢ $3,712 $3,420 −$293 (-8%)
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30? Yes 65¢ 34¢ $6,536 $3,350 −$3,186 (-49%)
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30? No 86¢ 91¢ $2,583 $2,740 +$158 (+6%)
Thailand strikes Cambodia by June 30, 2026? No 73¢ 96¢ $2,043 $2,697 +$654 (+32%)
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? No 84¢ 88¢ $2,520 $2,625 +$105 (+4%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026? No 54¢ 40¢ $2,731 $1,990 −$742 (-27%)
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 No 59¢ 30¢ $3,823 $1,919 −$1,904 (-50%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 42¢ 12¢ $5,012 $1,500 −$3,512 (-70%)
Will Lebanon join the Abraham Accords before 2027? No 75¢ 84¢ $1,241 $1,398 +$157 (+13%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? No 54¢ 42¢ $1,285 $999 −$286 (-22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? Jun 12 $6,322 +$2,637 +42%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? Jun 12 $3,802 +$2,771 +73%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Jun 09 $3,528 +$1,627 +46%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $90 +$10 +11%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026? Jun 06 $5,530 −$5,487 -99%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 06 $6,371 −$6,371 -100%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $3,025 −$3,008 -99%
Another critical Cloudflare incident by June 30, 2026? Jun 04 $752 −$745 -99%
Another critical Cloudflare incident by September 30, 2026? Jun 04 $159 −$155 -97%
Will Claude 5 be released by September 30, 2026? Jun 03 $2,507 −$2,441 -97%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 m Jun 02 $84 +$4 +4%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $1,442 +$132 +9%
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $367 −$204 -56%
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 10 and 20 years in priso Jun 02 $3 $0 +1%
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to no prison time? Jun 02 $330 +$1 +0%
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by June 30? Jun 02 $800 −$581 -73%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $1,740 +$186 +11%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 28, 2026? Jun 02 $797 +$89 +11%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? Jun 02 $3,644 +$453 +12%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? Jun 02 $1,007 −$1,007 -100%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $144 +$36 +25%
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by May 31? Jun 01 $1,300 −$1,300 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $3,550 +$1,450 +41%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 01 $7,722 +$2,288 +30%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Jun 01 $900 +$100 +11%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? Jun 01 $5,743 +$4,292 +75%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $13 −$13 -100%
Israel strike on Yemen by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $1,195 −$1,195 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $1,192 −$1,192 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $3,443 +$1,651 +48%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma Jun 01 $2,169 +$126 +6%
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $4,084 +$322 +8%
Will Kuwait join the Abraham Accords before 2027? May 31 $688 +$102 +15%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 31 $4,427 +$1,720 +39%
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026? May 31 $108 +$6 +5%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 31 $4,435 +$450 +10%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 $564 −$564 -100%
Will Russia capture all of Hryshyne by May 31? May 31 $5,206 −$4,744 -91%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 31 $4,440 +$2,546 +57%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $3,150 +$1,805 +57%
Tesla and xAI merger officially announced by June 30? May 31 $3,391 +$335 +10%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 $21 +$13 +64%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 30, 2026? May 30 $917 +$110 +12%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $5,300 −$2,090 -39%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $420 +$60 +14%
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31? May 29 $1,951 +$2,085 +107%
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 29 $669 −$642 -96%
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by May 31? May 29 $134 −$120 -90%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? May 29 $3,931 −$3,931 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 29 $1,405 −$1,405 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 56% +$4,217
other 18% −$15,829
politics 16% +$3,398
tech 7% −$428
sports 2% −$1,650
economics 1% +$14,542
crypto 0% −$33
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Lebanon join the Abraham Accords before 2027? SELL No 85¢ $1 21h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? SELL No 86¢ $5,155 2d
Will Lebanon join the Abraham Accords before 2027? SELL No 85¢ $26 4d
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" be the May film with the highest domest BUY Yes 55¢ $276 4d
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" be the May film with the highest domest BUY Yes 55¢ $4 4d
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" be the May film with the highest domest BUY Yes 55¢ $221 4d
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" be the May film with the highest domest BUY Yes 55¢ $6 4d
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" be the May film with the highest domest BUY Yes 55¢ $263 4d
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" be the May film with the highest domest BUY Yes 55¢ $6 4d
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" be the May film with the highest domest BUY Yes 55¢ $29 4d
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" be the May film with the highest domest BUY Yes 55¢ $4 4d
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" be the May film with the highest domest BUY Yes 55¢ $276 4d
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" be the May film with the highest domest BUY Yes 55¢ $552 4d
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" be the May film with the highest domest BUY Yes 55¢ $415 4d
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" be the May film with the highest domest BUY Yes 55¢ $10 4d
Will any month of 2026 be the hottest on record? BUY No 12¢ $1 5d
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" be the May film with the highest domest BUY Yes 51¢ $1 5d
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" be the May film with the highest domest BUY Yes 51¢ $77 5d
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" be the May film with the highest domest BUY Yes 51¢ $2 5d
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" be the May film with the highest domest BUY Yes 51¢ $5 5d
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" be the May film with the highest domest BUY Yes 51¢ $3 5d
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" be the May film with the highest domest BUY Yes 51¢ $3 5d
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" be the May film with the highest domest BUY Yes 51¢ $3 5d
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" be the May film with the highest domest BUY Yes 55¢ $231 5d
Thai Constitutional Court invalidates election? SELL No 98¢ $2,886 5d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026? BUY No 27¢ $992 5d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026? BUY No 27¢ $13 5d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026? BUY No 27¢ $370 5d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026? BUY No 27¢ $22 5d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026? BUY No 27¢ $821 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -18.3% -26.1% 57% 57% -34.3%
≤30d 72 -7.1% -15.9% 67% 46% -7.6%
≤90d 133 -4.4% -13.5% 65% 48% -7.9%
all 133 -4.4% -13.5% 65% 48% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover28.0 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.5% 48% -7.9%
10% -21.8% 29% -16.7%
15% ← realistic here -29.3% 19% -24.8%
20% -36.3% 12% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $113,074.61 · official $113,075.21 (match) · 2540 history records