Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T05:20:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4E
0x4e41…c9fc
crypto · 195 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$268 -10%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$340 · open −$4
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$25
Realized−$340
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses115 / 79
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)194 / 195
History coverage65d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day18.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%
Chart Positions 1 History 194 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$38
7 days−$43
14 days−$86
30 days−$112
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Yes 77¢ 66¢ $29 $25 −$4 (-14%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Up 33¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Down 41¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Down 33¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-02? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Down 76¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Up 36¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Down 65¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Up 5¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Down 37¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Down 31¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Down 56¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Down 67¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Down 30¢ 0¢ $32 $0 −$32 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Up 47¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7PM ET Down 8¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Down 55¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Down 21¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Down 19¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Down 46¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Down 74¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Down 80¢ 0¢ $29 $0 −$29 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Up 27¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Down 81¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$2 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 13 $7 −$5 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 13 $4 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 13 $9 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 12 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 12 $8 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 11 $8 +$2 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$1 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 11 $7 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 11 $7 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$3 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 11 $11 +$3 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 09 $15 +$10 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 09 $11 +$3 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 09 $12 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 09 $13 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 09 $4 −$2 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 09 $13 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 07 $18 −$17 -98%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $20 −$2 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 07 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 07 $8 +$1 +11%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $18 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 07 $23 +$6 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 07 $11 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 05 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 05 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 05 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 05 $9 +$4 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 05 $13 −$5 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 05 $21 −$9 -41%
Will Slovenia vs. Cyprus end in a draw? Jun 04 $12 +$5 +40%
Sweden vs. Greece: Both Teams to Score Jun 04 $9 +$3 +38%
Makarska: Robin Montgomery vs Lea Boskovic Jun 04 $8 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 04 $18 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 04 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 04 $5 +$1 +17%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-02? Jun 03 $6 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 02 $2 $0 -8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 84% −$329
other 9% −$36
sports 7% +$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 77¢ $29 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET SELL Up 51¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET SELL Up 45¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $1 1h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 7¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET SELL Down 26¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET SELL Up 40¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET SELL Down 61¢ $6 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-22.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -23.2% -30.5% 58% 33% -22.3%
≤30d 152 -11.5% -19.9% 64% 43% -17.0%
≤90d 194 -14.3% -22.4% 59% 42% -21.7%
all 194 -14.3% -22.4% 59% 42% -21.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover18.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.4% 42% -21.7%
10% -29.9% 23% -29.2%
15% -36.6% 14% -36.0%
20% -42.8% 7% -42.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.00 · official $25.00 (match) · 1243 history records