Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T19:07:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4E
0x4e3e…637c
sports · 160 markets active 1h ago
1.5score
+$1,497 +22%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1,428 · open +$58
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$2,063
Realized+$1,428
Unrealized+$58
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses67 / 77
Est. fees paid−$71
Open positions16
Markets (closed)144 / 160
History coverage16d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day46.7
Drawdown18%
Kalshi-fit92%
Chart Positions 16 History 144 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,184
7 days+$1,555
14 days+$1,516
30 days+$1,428
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Switzerland 60¢ 62¢ $1,904 $1,963 +$59 (+3%)
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays New York Yankees 53¢ 52¢ $62 $61 −$2 (-3%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? No 77¢ 100¢ $12 $16 +$4 (+30%)
Saudi Arabia bans US military aircraft by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card) Justin Gaethje 19¢ 20¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+3%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 52¢ 52¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Africa (CAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 97¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? Yes 98¢ 99¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 95¢ 88¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-8%)
Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 99¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? No 83¢ 92¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+11%)
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? No 97¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? No 68¢ 19¢ $4 $1 −$3 (-73%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? No 96¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+3%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? No 42¢ 20¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-54%)
Libema Open: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Panna Udvardy Ekaterina Alexandrova 83¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Tommy Paul Tommy Paul 38¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs B8 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 B8 41¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 FlyQuest 47¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Martin Landaluce Martin Landaluce 43¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Flavio Cobolli 23¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Sharks (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs Sharks 29¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Libema Open: Magda Linette vs Kimberly Birrell Kimberly Birrell 46¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva Marta Kostyuk 56¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $29 +$30 +104%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 13 $40 −$49 -123%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 13 $677 +$262 +39%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 13 $981 +$837 +85%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $670 +$363 +54%
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) Jun 11 $264 −$259 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $380 +$295 +78%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 10 $221 +$90 +41%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 10 $4 +$3 +73%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 10 $14 +$3 +19%
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 10 $2 +$2 +78%
Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo Jun 09 $2 +$1 +36%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $3 −$3 -97%
Stuttgart Open: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Alexis Galarneau Jun 09 $12 −$12 -97%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $2 +$1 +28%
HSBC Championships: Qinwen Zheng vs Jaqueline Cristian Jun 08 $3 +$6 +234%
HSBC Championships: Harriet Dart vs Liudmila Samsonova Jun 08 $4 +$8 +223%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 08 $37 −$36 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Tommy Paul vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Jun 08 $22 −$6 -28%
Libema Open: Daria Snigur vs Paula Badosa Jun 08 $8 +$7 +88%
Spread: Knicks (-3.5) Jun 08 $2 −$2 -97%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $2 +$1 +48%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $4 +$3 +62%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 08 $2 −$2 -97%
HSBC Championships: Karolina Pliskova vs McCartney Kessler Jun 08 $6 −$6 -97%
Libema Open: Magda Linette vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 08 $11 −$11 -97%
Libema Open: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Panna Udvardy Jun 08 $17 −$16 -98%
Libema Open: Marin Cilic vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 08 $30 −$30 -97%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $1 $0 +22%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $33 +$74 +223%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 08 $43 +$46 +108%
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $5 +$1 +26%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $20 −$6 -30%
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) Jun 07 $2 +$1 +36%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $2 +$1 +66%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $29 −$7 -24%
Athletics vs. Houston Astros Jun 07 $1 −$1 -98%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $2 −$2 -98%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $3 −$2 -97%
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Jun 07 $4 −$4 -98%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 07 $2 −$2 -97%
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $2 −$2 -98%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $2 $0 -12%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 07 $4 +$3 +91%
UFC Fight Night: Brendan Allen vs. Edmen Shahbazyan (Middleweight, Mai Jun 07 $26 +$14 +56%
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres Jun 07 $4 −$4 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Yuneisy Duben vs. Jeisla Chaves (Women's Flyweight, P Jun 07 $5 +$2 +35%
UFC Fight Night: Bruno Silva vs. Édgar Cháirez (Flyweight, Prelims) Jun 07 $5 +$5 +99%
UFC Fight Night: Ariane Carnelossi vs. Ketlen Souza (Women's Strawweig Jun 07 $10 +$3 +28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 82% +$1,166
other 13% +$284
world 5% +$36
politics 1% $0
crypto 0% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 61¢ $1 1h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 61¢ $1 1h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY New York Yankees 53¢ $1 1h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY New York Yankees 53¢ $1 1h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY New York Yankees 53¢ $1 1h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY New York Yankees 53¢ $1 1h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY New York Yankees 53¢ $2 1h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY New York Yankees 53¢ $2 1h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY New York Yankees 53¢ $2 1h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY New York Yankees 53¢ $3 1h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY New York Yankees 53¢ $3 1h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY New York Yankees 53¢ $4 1h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY New York Yankees 53¢ $5 1h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY New York Yankees 53¢ $5 1h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY New York Yankees 53¢ $6 1h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY New York Yankees 53¢ $8 1h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY New York Yankees 53¢ $9 1h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY New York Yankees 53¢ $11 1h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 60¢ $9 4h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 60¢ $11 4h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 60¢ $13 4h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 60¢ $15 4h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 60¢ $18 4h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 60¢ $21 5h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 60¢ $25 5h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 60¢ $30 5h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 60¢ $35 5h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 60¢ $42 5h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 60¢ $49 5h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 60¢ $58 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-26.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 58 -6.4% -15.3% 53% 53% +30.6%
≤30d 144 -19.1% -26.8% 47% 44% +22.8%
≤90d 144 -19.1% -26.8% 47% 44% +22.8%
all 144 -19.1% -26.8% 47% 44% +22.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover46.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -26.8% 44% +22.8%
10% ← realistic here -33.8% 41% +11.0%
15% -40.2% 35% +0.3%
20% -46.1% 29% -9.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,063.00 · official $2,062.54 (match) · 816 history records