Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T22:28:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

4E 0x4e3e…cab2 other 15 markets active 0h ago coverage 92d

RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ Small sample

! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$340 (+92%) realized +$422 · open −$82

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +40% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +27% what you keep after slip

Net edge+27%after slip

Net WR57%break-even

Win rate57%8W / 6L

Drawdown5%max

Avg bet$25per market

Trades / day0.3pace

Fees−$2est.

Kalshi-fit53%portable

Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 92d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +57%

net ROI/market (all)+26.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	14	+39.9%	+26.6%	57%	57%	+134.8%
≤30d	14	+39.9%	+26.6%	57%	57%	+134.8%
≤90d	14	+39.9%	+26.6%	57%	57%	+134.8%
all	14	+39.9%	+26.6%	57%	57%	+134.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.3 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to15%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+26.6%	57%	+134.8%
10%	+14.5%	50%	+112.3%
15%	+3.4%	50%	+91.8%
20%	-6.7%	43%	+73.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 71% · top 2 80% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +160% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +40% · $-wt +160% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -40% → late +119% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$55 vs −$4 · ×13.71 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×18.29 per $1 lost it wins $18.29

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage

Net worth$25

Realized+$422

Unrealized−$82

Win rate (resolved)57%

Wins / losses8 / 6

Est. fees paid−$2

Open positions1

Markets (closed)14 / 15

History coverage92d

Avg bet$25

Trades / day0.3

Drawdown5%

Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 14 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29?	Yes	41¢	10¢	$107	$25	−$82 (-77%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw?	Jun 29	$41	+$17	+42%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29?	Jun 29	$11	+$16	+148%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	Jun 29	$112	+$313	+279%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29?	Jun 29	$31	+$39	+127%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28?	Jun 29	$10	+$25	+250%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27?	Jun 28	$29	+$26	+90%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27?	Jun 27	$20	−$19	-97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	Jun 27	$1	−$1	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET	Jun 27	$1	+$2	+198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	Jun 27	$1	−$1	-96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET	Jun 27	$1	−$1	-98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	Jun 27	$1	−$1	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	Jun 27	$1	−$1	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET	Jun 27	$1	$0	+19%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	27¢	$41	8m
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw?	SELL Yes	50¢	$58	19m
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw?	BUY Yes	34¢	$41	1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	41¢	$20	1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29?	SELL Yes	26¢	$28	1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	13¢	$21	3h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	22¢	$41	4h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29?	SELL Yes	45¢	$70	4h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	10¢	$11	8h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	73¢	$47	8h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	19¢	$31	8h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	56¢	$51	8h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28?	BUY Yes	28¢	$10	25h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	5¢	$20	2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	52¢	$29	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	SELL Up	2¢	$0	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	BUY Up	31¢	$1	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET	BUY Up	32¢	$1	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	BUY Up	41¢	$1	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET	BUY Down	75¢	$1	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	BUY Up	1¢	$1	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	BUY Down	1¢	$1	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET	BUY Down	83¢	$1	91d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.82 · official $24.82 (match) · 29 history records