Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T15:20:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4E
0x4e3d…8554
world · 39 markets active 0h ago
1.5score
+$8,617 +10%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$8,502 · open +$114
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,606
Realized+$8,502
Unrealized+$114
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses23 / 12
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions3
Markets (closed)35 / 39
History coverage8d
Avg bet$2,257
Trades / day46.0
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit87%
Chart Positions 3 History 35 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,932
7 days+$8,830
14 days+$8,502
30 days+$8,502
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Warsh say "Good Afternoon" during June Press Conference? Yes 71¢ 76¢ $1,388 $1,474 +$85 (+6%)
Will Elon Musk be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO? No 70¢ 99¢ $70 $99 +$29 (+41%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? No 84¢ 84¢ $34 $34 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $441 +$3 +1%
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $763 −$5 -1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $2,064 +$460 +22%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 12 $44 +$53 +120%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $2,134 −$32 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $1,434 −$40 -3%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 11 $790 +$1,240 +157%
Will Trump announce Stephen Miller as the next Director of National In Jun 11 $252 +$2 +1%
Will Trump announce Tom Cotton as the next Director of National Intell Jun 11 $573 +$13 +2%
Will Trump announce Chris Stewart as the next Director of National Int Jun 11 $189 +$2 +1%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $3,119 +$2,377 +76%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $852 −$852 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 11 $93 −$69 -74%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 10, 2026? Jun 11 $200 +$11 +5%
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? Jun 10 $59 +$24 +41%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 10 $14,852 −$199 -1%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 10 $591 −$56 -10%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $2,956 +$41 +1%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $10,500 +$190 +2%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $8,127 +$109 +1%
Will OpenAI IPO by September 30 2026? Jun 09 $1,099 −$107 -10%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 08 $117 +$256 +219%
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? Jun 08 $324 +$1 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 08 $753 +$14 +2%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 08 $1,685 −$332 -20%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? Jun 08 $92 +$14 +15%
Iran closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 07 $1,290 +$44 +3%
Iran closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 07 $1,155 +$57 +5%
Cobolli vs. Zverev: Match O/U 36.5 Jun 07 $959 −$944 -98%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $535 +$21 +4%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $20,734 +$6,491 +31%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $3,468 +$16 +0%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 07 $629 +$25 +4%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Jun 05 $3,354 −$327 -10%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $99 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 44% +$9,930
politics 24% −$461
other 21% +$569
tech 6% +$351
sports 2% −$1,796
finance 1% −$2
crypto 1% +$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe SELL No 95¢ $444 11m
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe SELL Yes 95¢ $758 11m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? SELL No 83¢ $2,523 17m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL Yes 10¢ $21 26m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes 9¢ $18 26m
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY Yes 95¢ $133 51m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY No 67¢ $2,064 51m
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY Yes 95¢ $95 51m
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY Yes 95¢ $71 51m
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY Yes 95¢ $29 51m
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY Yes 95¢ $49 51m
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY Yes 95¢ $98 51m
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY Yes 96¢ $77 52m
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY Yes 96¢ $72 52m
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY Yes 96¢ $50 53m
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY Yes 96¢ $89 53m
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY No 98¢ $265 1h
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY No 88¢ $15 1h
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY No 88¢ $161 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? SELL Yes 75¢ $4 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY Yes 76¢ $4 1h
Will Elon Musk be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's I BUY No 70¢ $70 1h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $34 3h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 70¢ $1,395 6h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 72¢ $5 15h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 72¢ $410 16h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 72¢ $1,019 16h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL Yes 31¢ $297 20h
Will Trump announce Stephen Miller as the next Director of National In SELL No 100¢ $254 20h
Will Trump announce Tom Cotton as the next Director of National Intell SELL No 100¢ $585 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)+0.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 +12.1% +1.4% 70% 24% +0.1%
≤30d 35 +11.1% +0.5% 66% 23% -0.6%
≤90d 35 +11.1% +0.5% 66% 23% -0.6%
all 35 +11.1% +0.5% 66% 23% -0.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover46.0 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +0.5% 23% -0.6%
10% -9.1% 20% -10.1%
15% ← realistic here -17.9% 14% -18.8%
20% -25.9% 11% -26.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,606.22 · official $1,606.42 (match) · 411 history records