Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:32:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4E 0x4e3c…d370 sports 34 markets active 1h ago coverage 74d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$12,550 (-14%) realized −$12,760 · open +$210
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate53%16W / 14L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,652per market
Trades / day5.8pace
Fees−$1,038est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$4,860now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,736
7 days−$305
14 days−$8,603
30 days−$8,603
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$13,038
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-23.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -16.4% -24.4% 55% 55% -10.9%
≤30d 24 -23.1% -30.4% 50% 50% -20.5%
≤90d 30 -15.9% -23.9% 53% 53% -23.6%
all 30 -15.9% -23.9% 53% 53% -23.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.8 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.9% 53% -23.6%
10% ← realistic here -31.2% 50% -30.9%
15% -37.8% 43% -37.6%
20% -43.9% 40% -43.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$3,982) neutral
Persistence
early -23% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
12.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,697 vs −$2,886 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

74d coverage
Net worth$4,860
Realized−$12,760
Unrealized+$210
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses16 / 14
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$1,038
Open positions4
Markets (closed)30 / 34
History coverage74d
Avg bet$2,652
Trades / day5.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - DraculaN Group B K27 65¢ 66¢ $3,667 $3,758 +$91 (+2%)
Game Handicap: AG (-1.5) vs Four Angry Men (+1.5) All Gamers 59¢ 81¢ $295 $405 +$110 (+37%)
Nocries signs for a pro CS2 organization by June 30? No 83¢ 84¢ $359 $363 +$4 (+1%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Under 66¢ 67¢ $330 $335 +$5 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Rainbow Six Siege: My Queen vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - CN League Stag Jun 19 $266 +$89 +33%
Rainbow Six Siege: All Gamers vs TYLOO (BO3) - CN League Stage 1 Group Jun 19 $445 −$445 -100%
Game Handicap: AG (-1.5) vs TYLOO (+1.5) Jun 19 $328 −$325 -99%
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - The International Sout Jun 19 $2,325 +$694 +30%
Game Handicap: Grind (-1.5) vs Mentality Monster (+1.5) Jun 19 $1,943 +$1,723 +89%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $4,044 +$2,305 +57%
Game Handicap: Z10 (-1.5) vs Flame Team (+1.5) Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Dota 2: summer bear vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $2,504 −$2,501 -100%
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $3,985 −$3,982 -100%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 17 $1,336 +$785 +59%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $2,641 +$1,360 +52%
Rainbow Six Siege: Can You Be My Enemy vs SCARZ (BO1) - Asia Pacific L Jun 13 $983 +$112 +11%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5) Jun 13 $5,018 −$5,016 -100%
Counter-Strike: OLDBOYS- vs Donstu Esports (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europ Jun 12 $4,258 +$2,516 +59%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $2,924 +$2,141 +73%
Counter-Strike: OLDBOYS- vs Donstu Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $109 +$62 +57%
Map Handicap: DNT (-1.5) vs OLDBOYS- (+1.5) Jun 12 $330 −$330 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $2,339 −$2,300 -98%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5) Jun 11 $8,090 −$8,090 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $11,725 +$6,294 +54%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $6,814 +$4,976 +73%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $3,063 −$3,048 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $2,028 −$2,000 -99%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Group Jun 10 $3,630 −$3,614 -100%
Counter-Strike: Akimbo Esports vs InControl (BO3) - CCT North America Apr 10 $400 +$289 +72%
Valorant: WEC C vs Riddle - Map 2 Winner Apr 09 $7 +$3 +48%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 3DMAX - Map 2 Winner Apr 07 $7,648 −$7,640 -100%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs BC.Game Esports - Map 2 Winner Apr 07 $1,110 −$1,103 -99%
Valorant: WEC C vs Riddle - Map 1 Winner Apr 07 $1,939 +$1,954 +101%
Counter-Strike: ESC Gaming vs STATE (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #20 Play Apr 07 $3,281 +$1,851 +56%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 66¢ $333 43m
Nocries signs for a pro CS2 organization by June 30? BUY No 88¢ $66 2h
Nocries signs for a pro CS2 organization by June 30? BUY No 86¢ $21 2h
Nocries signs for a pro CS2 organization by June 30? BUY No 82¢ $269 2h
Game Handicap: AG (-1.5) vs Four Angry Men (+1.5) BUY All Gamers 59¢ $299 2h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - DraculaN Group B BUY K27 66¢ $107 22h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - DraculaN Group B BUY K27 66¢ $69 22h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - DraculaN Group B BUY K27 66¢ $42 22h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - DraculaN Group B BUY K27 66¢ $19 22h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - DraculaN Group B BUY K27 66¢ $343 25h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - DraculaN Group B BUY K27 66¢ $2 25h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - DraculaN Group B BUY K27 66¢ $163 26h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - DraculaN Group B BUY K27 66¢ $126 27h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - DraculaN Group B BUY K27 66¢ $634 27h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - DraculaN Group B BUY K27 66¢ $473 28h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - DraculaN Group B BUY K27 66¢ $171 29h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - DraculaN Group B BUY K27 66¢ $388 30h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - DraculaN Group B BUY K27 66¢ $103 30h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - DraculaN Group B BUY K27 63¢ $152 32h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - DraculaN Group B BUY K27 63¢ $467 32h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - DraculaN Group B BUY K27 63¢ $6 33h
Rainbow Six Siege: All Gamers vs TYLOO (BO3) - CN League Stage 1 Group BUY All Gamers 89¢ $89 33h
Rainbow Six Siege: All Gamers vs TYLOO (BO3) - CN League Stage 1 Group BUY All Gamers 89¢ $89 33h
Rainbow Six Siege: All Gamers vs TYLOO (BO3) - CN League Stage 1 Group BUY All Gamers 89¢ $89 33h
Rainbow Six Siege: All Gamers vs TYLOO (BO3) - CN League Stage 1 Group BUY All Gamers 89¢ $89 33h
Rainbow Six Siege: All Gamers vs TYLOO (BO3) - CN League Stage 1 Group BUY All Gamers 89¢ $89 33h
Game Handicap: AG (-1.5) vs TYLOO (+1.5) BUY All Gamers 65¢ $328 34h
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - The International Sout BUY Grind Back 77¢ $100 41h
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - The International Sout BUY Grind Back 77¢ $33 42h
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - The International Sout BUY Grind Back 77¢ $38 42h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,860.27 · official $4,860.27 (match) · 459 history records